Just six weeks into its work, the company hired to analyze Honolulu's mass-transit alternatives has identified more than 70 possible route combinations for an O'ahu rail system stretching 24 miles from Kapolei to Manoa. By December, it hopes to whittle the options down to three or four routes and present them to the public.

Working under a $9.7 million contract from the city, a team of planners, engineers and others from the planning firm of Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas is examining the city's transit options from every possible angle: costs, ridership, technology, environment, zoning and more, company officials said.

The work ranges from high to low, from new three-dimensional aerial photography of possible rail corridors to walking the streets where a rail line could be built.

Rail is one of several transit options planners are studying.

Normally, planning for a similar project would involve dozens of people working two years or more. But because planners can draw on similar studies done in Honolulu at least three times in the past two decades, company officials think they can prepare a set of recommendations for city administration and City Council action by next fall, putting the city on a path to begin construction in 2009.

Right now, the group has as many questions as answers, said project director Richard Page.

Queen Street or Halekauwila? Dillingham or Nimitz? Farrington or H-1? Stop at the airport or Salt Lake? Elevated lines or a tunnel through downtown? Steel wheels or rubber? Monorail or light rail or buses? If money is short, do you start building from town or country?

"Everything is a possible trade-off at this point," said Page, who heads a team of up to 19 people working on the project from a Bishop Street high-rise conference room that overlooks both the likely path of a rail line through downtown and Honolulu Hale, where the final decision will be made. The 70 or more rail routes include almost every possible combination of streets along several main corridors.

PLANNING CHALLENGES

Probably the biggest challenge involves planning a rail route through downtown Honolulu, team members said.

Putting a line underground through the area would be technically difficult and expensive. Elevating a line could affect traffic and nearby historic buildings, and raise aesthetic objections.

Another discussion within the company is what to do if the city doesn't have enough money to build a line all at once, a possibility Mayor Mufi Hannemann has hinted at.

Some say building an initial rail line segment in urban Honolulu makes sense, given its density of possible riders. Others argue that West O'ahu, with its pressing traffic congestion problem, makes a better starting point.

The team has the advantage of working for a national firm that has been involved in transportation projects for more than 100 years. Its founder, William Barclay Parsons, designed New York City's first subway line, and today the company is involved in projects from Boston to Shanghai.

It has had an office in Honolulu since 1966 and planned most of the previous big transportation projects in Honolulu, including the ill-fated 1992 attempt to build rail, as well as the H-3 Freeway, the bridge to Ford Island and, most recently, the proposed Bus Rapid Transit system.

"Many of these things have been studied carefully before. The options are not all over the boat," said Mark Scheibe, assistant project manager. "The problems are much the same as the last three times they've been studied."

Many conditions have changed, though. Population growth has shifted from Central O'ahu to West O'ahu. The new plan is the first to consider starting a rail line in Kapolei. Construction costs have soared. With gas prices likely to remain around $3 for the foreseeable future, projected ridership figures are sure to change. Information-gathering will include an extensive on-board survey of bus riders to see why and where they are riding and whether they would use a rail line.

Ridership projections have been particularly troublesome in the past, company officials admit. Until about 10 years ago, most computer models tended to seriously overestimate new ridership on mass transit, giving fuel to critics who said transit planners were trying to feather their own nest.

"Since then, the Federal Transit Administration has come up with strict new standards for ridership. Since the late 1990s, most of the projects have come within 20 percent of the original projections," Scheibe said.

CLOSE CONSULTATION

Team members meet almost daily with city officials, said Toru Hamayasu, chief planner for the City Department of Transportation Services.

"It's not like we give them a contract and wait a year. There are a lot of technical decisions that have to be made almost every day, and they don't do that on their own. Their job is to come up with an evaluation and recommendation for us."

The company expects to produce dozens of technical reports and revisions in the coming year on all aspects of the project, including potential new rail technologies, conceptual station designs, effects on traffic, and environmental and archaeological impacts. It also will help produce several reports to the Federal Transit Administration, which likely would fund part of any mass-transit build-out.

City officials say they are pleased so far with the contract work.

"They're on a very aggressive schedule, but we think it's realistic," Hamayasu said. "The technical work is pretty straightforward, but what takes more time is the need to review and coordinate with many other people and agencies involved."

Although the Parsons company and its employees have contributed more than $31,000 to various local election campaigns in the past four years, officials say there will be nothing political about the report it produces.

"Our job is to gather all the technical data and make some recommendation based upon our best professional judgment," Page said. "Ultimately, it's up to the city officials to reach agreement on what they want to do."

The company says it plans to hold the first of many public meetings on the initial proposals in December.

"We're committed to keeping people informed at every stage of the process," Hamayasu said. "Nobody is going to be left in some kind of vacuum. By November, we hope to start a newsletter and Web site so the information will be spread around."

Reach Mike Leidemann at mleidemann@honoluluadvertiser.com.