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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, September 18, 2005

COMMENTARY
Koizumi's big win has foreign-policy consequences

By Richard Halloran

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi spoke to reporters in front of his election campaign poster at the ruling Liberal Democratic Party headquarters in Tokyo on Aug. 19. After the postal reform package was defeated in the upper house of parliament with the help of anti-reform LDP lawmakers, Koizumi dissolved the lower house, called snap elections and declared war on his opponents.

KOJI SASAHARA | Associated Press

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The stunning electoral victory engineered by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan last week ought to make leaders in Washington, Beijing, Pyongyang, Seoul and at the United Nations sit up and take note, because it marks a great leap forward in Japan's emergence from the passive and pacifist cocoon in which it had wrapped itself since the end of World War II 60 years ago.

Foreign policy didn't figure much in the election campaign, but the consequences of the outcome are striking. The foreign policy and security posture of every nation is rooted in domestic politics, and Koizumi's big win will permit him to wield considerable influence beyond the shores of Japan.

In the more powerful of the two houses in Japan's Diet, or parliament, the prime minister's Liberal Democratic Party or LDP won 296 of the 480 seats in the House of Representatives. Added to that 55-seat margin over a majority are 31 seats won by the New Komeito, the LDP's junior partner. Parliamentary leaders around the world would salivate to have that much clout.

Many who follow Japanese politics were startled by the results. Said Thomas Berger, a scholar at Boston University: "I can only marvel at the breadth and depth of Koizumi's victory. Koizumi even outdid the upper estimates for the possible LDP margin of victory."

Similarly, Sheila Smith, a research fellow at the East-West Center, said Koizumi had earned "a place in history as one of Japan's most masterful political strategists." He had gambled by calling an election after his own party had voted down a bill to privatize the nation's postal savings system.

Although the prime minister considered that a vital piece of reform legislation, his real intent was to win undisputed command over his party and the Diet. For the most part, those who opposed him were defeated.

For several years, Japan has been moving gradually to shed the constraints under which it has operated in the international realm for nearly six decades. Some Japanese have asserted that their nation should become "normal." Concurrent with that has been the regime of Koizumi, who became prime minister in April 2001.

While several domestic issues were debated during the campaign, Koizumi's attributes as a political leader seemed to override all else. Many Japanese said the voters liked the way he stood up for reform in Japan during a resurgence of national pride.

Koizumi's victory will make more likely a controversial revision of Japan's constitution. Mainichi Shimbun, a leading newspaper in Tokyo, found that 84 percent of those elected to the new House favored removing political restrictions on Japan's armed forces. The socialists and communists can be counted on to oppose that vociferously.

In addition, Koizumi is expected to insist that Japan, whose bid to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council has been blocked so far, be given a greater say in U.N. deliberations. Japan is second only to the United States in financial contributions to the U.N., providing 18.8 percent of the U.N. budget last year.

That is more than the combined contributions of Britain, France, China and Russia, the other four permanent members of the Security Council.

The U.S. will have a year to complete current negotiations with Tokyo over realigning U.S. military forces in Japan. Those talks should go well because Koizumi values his nation's alliance with the U.S. and is a political ally and personal friend of President Bush. He has said, however, that he plans to step down a year from now; his replacement might be an unknown quantity.

Koizumi's main foreign challenge will be to forge new relations with China. As Thomas Berger has said: "The Japanese are getting fed up with China, and Chinese policy since the mid-1990s has done a lot to provoke them. At the same time, Japan is in Asia, China is a growing presence in the region, and Japan has to adjust itself to that reality."

Already hints coming from Tokyo say Koizumi is considering a summit meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao. Another meeting may be proposed with President Roh Moo Hyun of South Korea, who has been antagonistic toward Japan.

Koizumi can be expected to be firm in negotiations with North Korea intended to persuade "Dear Leader" Kim Jong Il to give up his nuclear weapons, to reduce the threat from North Korean missiles, and to get an accounting of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea.

Altogether, a good year's work for the high-riding prime minister.

Richard Halloran is a Honolulu-based journalist and former New York Times correspondent in Asia.