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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Clue from Fed spurs bulls of Wall Street

By Adam Shell
USA Today

NEW YORK — Stocks posted their biggest gains in a year yesterday after the Federal Reserve put in writing what Wall Street has been desperately seeking for months: confirmation that the central bank is nearing the end of its string of interest rate increases that began two years ago.

The news came in the form of 15 words buried in the minutes of the Fed's March 28 meeting released yesterday. Investors keyed on the following phrase: "Most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near."

The minutes, as well as comments yesterday by the Fed's regional chief in San Francisco, Janet Yellen, suggest that the Fed is wary of raising rates too high.

That was music to the ears of stock investors. The Dow Jones industrial average rallied 195 points, or 1.8 percent, to 11,269, its best point gain since April 21, 2005. The Dow, which had been weak since hitting a 2006 high on March 22, is back in bullish mode and less than 50 points from a fresh multiyear high.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a ratio of nearly 4 to 1 yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 2.68 billion shares, up from 1.87 billion on Monday.

Traders interpreted the Fed's latest take on monetary policy as the best clue yet that it would likely raise rates just once more — a quarter percentage point — at its May 10 meeting. That would bring the federal funds rate, currently 4.75 percent after 15 increases since June 2004, to 5 percent. Before the minutes were released, some traders expected a 5.25 percent or even 5.5 percent rate.

While traders admit the exact timing of the end of the Fed's rate-increase campaign has not been clarified, the fact that the Fed has gone public with its debate about when to stop is significant.

"It's the first time we have seen the Fed actually come out in writing and say, 'We are almost done,' " said Todd Leone, head of listed trading at Cowen & Co.

Not everyone is convinced the Fed is done. Janna Sampson, director of portfolio management at OakBrook Investments, notes that the Fed's minutes suggested that inflation was not moving higher because crude oil prices had stabilized. But crude and a host of other commodities, such as copper and steel, have soared since the meeting, which could cause the inflation rate to rise. If it does, "the Fed may not stop" raising rates, Sampson said.

Stocks, which shrugged off a $71-plus high for a barrel of oil, also got a lift from a strong start to the first-quarter earnings season, which included a better-than-expected report yesterday from brokerage Merrill Lynch. A benign report on wholesale price inflation also emboldened investors.

Investors worry that the Fed, trying to counter inflation pressures caused by rising commodity prices, will raise borrowing costs too much, said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at Johnson Illington Advisors. A too-aggressive Fed could slow the economy, crimp consumer spending and hurt U.S. corporate profits. "But based on the Fed's minutes, it appears they may not make that mistake," he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.