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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, December 25, 2006

Weather forecast: No white Christmas atop Mauna Kea

By Karin Stanton
Associated Press

Road crews had to clear the Mauna Kea summit road in December 2001. Forecasters don't expect a white Christmas there this year.

AP LIBRARY PHOTO | Dec. 13, 2001

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SKI THE NET

Ski Guides Hawaii: www.skihawaii.com

Trail Source: www.trailsource.com

Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Summit Camera: www.cfht.hawaii.edu

Mauna Kea Weather: www.gemini.edu/sciops

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KAILUA, KONA, Hawai'i — Those in the Islands who need to see snow to really get into the holiday season will probably be disappointed today. It looks likely to be just another beautiful day in paradise.

Weather forecasters said they doubted that any snow would be dumped on Mauna Kea, the Big Island's 13,796-foot dormant volcano, in time for a white Christmas or even New Year's.

"It's not looking very good, I'm afraid," said Bob Ballard, National Weather Service forecaster in Honolulu. "It'll be dry and sunny up there all through the week."

A storm that blew across the summit Dec. 1 and 2 did powder the mountain with a layer of white, but only patches remained this week.

"We did have the one snowfall, just a few inches," said Christopher Langan, founder of Ski Guides Hawai'i.

"And there really isn't much (snow-producing weather) around us so it doesn't look too promising. I would give it a 40-60 percent chance," he said.

Langan, a former Jackson Hole, Wyo., ski teacher and search and rescue patrolman, said it is a little on the unusual side to not yet have substantial snow on Mauna Kea.

"We have had a white Christmas most years, but it looks like beautiful weather so far," he said.

Ryan Lyman, forecast meteorologist with the University of Hawai'i-affiliated Mauna Kea Weather Center, said he's not optimistic about snow anytime soon, either.

Lyman said records of Christmas snowfalls don't exist, but records do indicate that the most active months for local snowflakes are coming up.

"We get most snow in January, February and into March. That's the bulk of the cold stuff," he said. "In the last five years, there hasn't been much snow up there over the holidays." Even the early December storm isn't accommodating.

"December snow doesn't stick around much. It warms up too much in the day," Lyman said. "I don't think there's any up there right now. Even the stuff we already had is gone now, only lasted a couple of weeks."

Lyman also said Hawai'i snow isn't like the stuff most ski resort visitors expect.

"On the Mainland, the snow is actually more powder," he said. "Here it turns into ice pretty quick."

That, coupled with winds on the summit up to 60 mph, can create interesting conditions.

"Some of the drifts are amazing — 10 to 12 feet high — and they can block the road for weeks at a time," Lyman said. "It takes some time to get in there and excavate before the road can open. That's a big hazard."

Ballard said snow can be expected several times each year, mostly at the 10,000-foot elevations and higher on the Big Island's Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa, and on Maui's Haleakala, which tops out at 10,023 feet.

Snow has been recorded as low as the 7,000-foot elevation, Ballard said "but that's not that common."

Langan said it doesn't matter where or when it snows, he'll be there.

"I've skied as early as Oct. 23 and one year consistently from Thanksgiving to the Fourth of July," he said. "It wasn't good skiing, but it was skiing."

That was some 10 to 12 years ago, Langan said.

Langan is one of the only people to rent out ski equipment on the Big Island and leads guided ski trips up the largest island mountain in the world — which doesn't feature any marked ski runs, ski lifts, lodges, apres ski cocktail lounges or immediate medical assistance.

Coming from one of the United States' most famous ski spots in Jackson Hole, Langan said he merely made a trade to "the other side of paradise."

"Hey, I've skied 5,000 vertical feet in seven miles," he said. "I've seen 18-foot drifts and 4 feet (of new snow) overnight. We have a very unique place here in the middle of the Pacific."

For those who are missing the snow today, just keep thinking how jealous Mainland friends and family will be to hear how unwrapping presents had to wait until after the morning's surf session.