ORLANDO, Fla. — In most years when the thermometer drops up north, Florida tourism operators rub their hands in anticipation of the money they'll earn from visitors flying to the balmy beaches and theme parks of the nation's second-most popular vacation destination. But this winter there is cause for concern.

Higher fuel prices in the Northeast could have a domino effect several months later on the state's $57 billion tourism industry, leading to what is predicted to be a slight slowdown in tourism growth this year.

Tourism officials also have another, perhaps bigger worry: the threat of another turbulent hurricane season. Four hurricanes — Dennis, Rita, Katrina and Wilma — struck Florida in 2005; four hurricanes also hit the state the previous year.

As a result, Florida tourism officials are predicting only a 3.2 percent increase in visitors for 2006, higher than the 2 percent increase expected in visits to the United States, but lower than the 7 percent increase in Florida tourism between 2003 and 2004.

Part of the concern is because many leisure travelers plan summer vacations months in advance, when they will be dealing with the high cost of power this winter.

"People will be coming off the sticker shock of high fuel prices, heating and home fuel prices," said Jim Atchison, general manager of SeaWorld Adventure Park in Orlando. "From a timing perspective, I think that will be something fresh in their minds as they begin to plan their summer vacations."

Figures for 2005 won't be available until February, although third-quarter estimates were more than 9 percent higher than the same period in 2004, putting Florida on track to have more than 80 million visitors for the year.

"I'm constantly surprised by the resiliency of Florida tourism," Gov. Jeb Bush said. "We've had threats of hurricanes, high gas prices. While there was a worry, the people coming to Florida have met and beat our expectations."

Florida is the nation's second-most popular tourist destination, after California. New York, Texas and Illinois follow, according to the Travel Industry Association of America.

Overall, Florida tourism operators rated 2005 a strong year.

Walt Disney World attendance grew by 10 percent in the last quarter of the company's fiscal year, led by visits from local and international travelers, said Jacquee Polak, a Walt Disney Co. spokeswoman.

Anecdotal evidence points to a recovery around the state in international visitors, whose numbers dipped precipitously after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, tourism officials said.

"International visitors have absolutely, completely recovered," said Nicki Grossman, president of the Greater Fort Lauderdale Convention & Visitors Bureau. "We've seen an increase in U.K., German and Canadian business here."

Many businesses, such as the Holiday Inn Cocoa Beach Oceanfront Resort, that closed their doors for repairs after the hurricanes of 2004 reopened to stronger business in 2005. The resort's fortunes, like much of Brevard County's tourism industry, were boosted by the return to flight of the space shuttle.

"We renovated after the hurricanes because we had to, and we were able to attract a larger amount of clientele," said Shay Baranowski, general manager of the resort, which closed for four months at the end of 2004. "It just has been a phenomenal year."

But hurricanes remain on the minds of many tourism operators. The 2006 hurricane season is expected to be more active than average but not up to last year's devastating, record-setting pace. Hurricane forecaster William Gray of Colorado State University has predicted nine hurricanes in 2006 compared with 14 in 2005.

To combat the images of flooded streets and blown-off roofs, Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing agency, in 2006 will focus more on advertising to the meeting and convention market and less on leisure travelers.

The Greater Naples, Marco Island & Everglades Convention & Visitors Bureau estimates that group business in August, September and October — the most active months of the hurricane season — has declined by almost half since the 2004 hurricanes, representing a loss of $2 million to $3 million. Wilma, a Category 3 hurricane, made landfall south of Marco Island in October but left the area's tourism infrastructure relatively unscathed.

Across the state, Wilma caused the postponement of two big October tourism events, Fantasy Fest in Key West and the boat show in Fort Lauderdale.

"Groups that have traditionally come here during those time periods have not rescheduled their meetings," said Jack Wert, executive director of the Greater Naples tourism bureau. "They're either scheduling at other times of the year or going to other destinations outside of Florida."

The state's tourism marketing agency has offered insurance to business groups that would cover costs from having to reschedule meetings because of hurricanes. The Naples area tourism bureau, though, may focus its marketing efforts on senior citizens for those months rather than group business, but "the unfortunate part is it's very difficult to replace ... group business with leisure travel," Wert said.

"You can't get enough of them and they don't spend the kind of money that groups spend, so it's definitely a net loss," he said.