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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, January 8, 2006

The Oscars — who's hot and who's not

By Scott Bowles
USA Today

Jake Gyllenhaal, left, and Heath Ledger star in "Brokeback Mountain," a strong contender for an Oscar nomination. Ang Lee's movie about gay love and heartache is based on a story by E. Annie Proulx.

Focus Features

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Forget the season of giving. In Hollywood, this is the season of getting.

Sure, many of the movies that are considered Academy Award contenders haven't made it to your local multiplex yet. But as far as Tinseltown is concerned, the Oscar gold grab is on: Ad campaigns are raging, favorites are emerging, and some movies are already fading from contention.

To help make sense of the upcoming awards frenzy, we raise a few questions and answers surrounding the Oscars. Nominations will be announced Jan. 31 and awards given out March 5.

1. Who's in front?

"Brokeback Mountain" is the early film to beat. The story of two gay cowboys has swept early critics awards and sits atop many prognosticators' lists.

Of course, the contest is still wide open. Remember "Sideways"? Last year's road-trip comedy was invincible early in the awards season and took the Golden Globe for best comedy or musical. By Oscar time, however, it took only one statuette, for best adapted screenplay.

The fate of "Brokeback" may be entwined with that of "Munich," the Steven Spielberg film about the aftermath of the 1972 Olympics massacre. "Spielberg can always be a spoiler," says Sasha Stone of oscarwatch.com.

2. Will first-time host Jon Stewart pull it off?

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences made a late choice of host in Jon Stewart when it announced the assignment Thursday.

Last month, Chris Rock's publicist said the comedian would not be back. Then Billy Crystal let it be known that he had been asked but turned down the gig, leaving anyone who took the host's spot to accept the second-choice label.

In "Daily Show" host Stewart, however, the show has someone with youthful appeal. "The academy got a lot of attention with Chris Rock," says Tom O'Neil, author of Movie Awards and head of the Los Angeles Times' awards site theenvelope .latimes.com. "They'll try to stay in the headlines."

3. Does sexual orientation matter?

Gender and sexuality twists are all the rage, at least in Hollywood. In "Transamerica," Felicity Huffman plays a man preparing for a sex change. Truman Capote's relationship with the killer Perry Smith is at the heart of "Capote." In "Brokeback Mountain," Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal struggle with homosexuality.

Filmmakers concede that sexual issues can be a hard sell. "I know these themes have obstacles," says "Brokeback" director Ang Lee. "They have to be promoted carefully."

That includes selling the movie to academy members. "They won't admit it, but Oscar voters blow in the commercial wind," says Jeffrey Wells of hollywood elsewhere.com. "If a movie bombs at the box office, they'll look harder at it."

4. Who will be Oscar's darling?

Last year it was Jamie Foxx for "Ray" and Charlize Theron for "Monster." The year before that, Peter Jackson was the award's poster boy.

This year has a few candidates. "I'd be surprised if George Clooney didn't get three nominations," says Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger. Clooney directed "Good Night" and starred in and produced both that film and "Syriana."

Another fave could be Terrence Howard, who stars in "Crash" and "Hustle & Flow." Among actresses, it will be Reese Witherspoon, Karger says. "She's going to be the Halle Berry of the season. She's got the charisma, the look. People will be watching what she wears, how she handles the pressure."

5. Will singers and Oscar make beautiful music?

Oscar likes its dash of tunes, from" Chicago" to "Moulin Rouge" to Foxx in last year's "Ray." Though "Rent" and "The Producers" have received a lukewarm reception from critics, the Johnny Cash biography "Walk the Line" seems destined for Academy Awards nominations.

"It's a slam dunk, at least in the acting categories" for stars Joaquin Phoenix and Witherspoon, who already has won three critics awards for best actress, O'Neil says. "And it's one of the few movies that has big public support," with more than $83 million at the box office.

6. Can Peter Jackson return as king?

When his 2003 film "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" collected 11 Oscars, Jackson became the do-no-wrong helmsman in Hollywood.

And it's his clout that makes "King Kong" a contender. Without Jackson, "Kong" is just a monkey movie, "but no one does action like him," says David Poland of moviecitynews.com. "So, right now, anything he touches is taken seriously."

7. Can early films make a late run?

Oscar is notorious for its short-term memory. Of the best-picture candidates, up to 70 percent are released in November and December, says "Inside Oscar" author Damien Bona.

But there are notable early releases catching voters' attention: "Crash," released in May, August's "The Constant Gardener" and "A History of Violence," out in September. The films captured early critics awards and are receiving heavy Oscar pushes from their studios.

"It's a chess match," says "Violence" director David Cronenberg. "The last two months get so crowded, you have to come out earlier. So you need to time your DVDs, have a well-planned campaign and hope people don't forget you can turn out good movies any time of year."

8. Will small films play big?

For the first time in the Golden Globes' history, all five best-drama candidates cost less than $30 million each to make. Small films such as "Brokeback," "Good Night" and "Match Point" will shape the Academy Awards race as major studios shy away from the Oscar game.

"Big studio conglomerates are concerned about the bottom line, not awards," says Terry Press, marketing chief for DreamWorks, which is releasing "Match Point." "It used to be that a studio would make a movie that appealed both commercially and artistically. That's not the case now."

Nor is it necessarily a bad thing, says Jeff Daniels, star of "The Squid and the Whale." "One of the more noble things the Oscars can do is pay attention to movies no one knows about," he says. "Blockbusters don't need much help."

9. Will politics rule?

Take a look at the early front-runners, and most aren't pulling any punches.

"Syriana" is a searing take on the relationship among the U.S. government, oil companies and Mideast leadership. "Good Night, and Good Luck" is an examination of the press' will to stand up against big government. "Munich" takes a cold look at eye-for-an-eye justice when it comes to terrorism.

"Politics are all around us, you can't escape it," says Jeff Goldstein, a distribution executive with Warner Bros., which released "Syriana." "It's natural that the best movies are going to reflect what's going on in people's everyday lives."

10. Will anybody care?

This is what has the academy most concerned. For the third straight year, movie attendance has fallen. Last year's Academy Awards drew 42 million viewers, the second lowest since 1997.

If small films dominate the awards, ratings will again be a challenge. The highest ratings came when blockbusters such as 1997's "Titanic" were in the mix.

"People have many options for entertainment, and we've got to work to get people excited about movie business," says Elizabeth Gabler, president of Fox 2000, a division of 20th Century Fox.

And the Oscars, Clooney says, are a good place to start. "Winning an Oscar is fine, but it's not what the awards should be about," he says. "They should be about showing people the kind of work you're capable of. That will get people interested in seeing more of it."