In a primary contest so crowded that name recognition could make the difference, an Advertiser Hawai'i Poll shows that all 2nd Congressional District candidates have more work to do, with former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, former state Sen. Matt Matsunaga and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa garnering the strongest favorability ratings.

The other five prominent Democrats vying for the opportunity to represent the Neighbor Islands and outlying areas on O'ahu in Congress are all within range of one another, although they clearly have a way to go to catch the front-runners.

The poll, conducted by Ward Research for The Advertiser between June 8 and 27, asked respondents whether they had favorable or unfavorable opinions of the eight best-known Democratic candidates for the U.S. House seat in the 2nd Congressional District being vacated by U.S. Rep. Ed Case, who is running for the U.S. Senate. Respondents could also say they were not familiar enough with the candidate to have an opinion.

Only 165 of the 602 respondents in the poll lived in the district and said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary, making for a large margin of error — 8 percentage points — that might not reflect the actual mood of all registered Democratic voters.

"It's still something you can consider to be valid," said Tammy Chang, a project director for Ward Research.

The margin of error means that the results, if everyone planning to vote Democratic in the 2nd District were polled, could vary by as much as 15 percentage points, but still not be statistically significant, she explained.

However, despite the room for error, she expects the results would be similar with a larger sample.

WHAT'S IN A NAME?

The results show Hirono with the highest favorable responses — 52 percent — followed by Matsunaga at 46 percent and Hanabusa at 39 percent.

While the respondents were not asked to rank candidates or indicate who they would vote for, Hirono enjoyed considerably more name recognition than anyone else — with only 24 percent of respondents not familiar enough with her to form an opinion.

By contrast, 43 percent of those responding were unable to form an opinion of Matsunaga, 48 percent on Hanabusa and 40 percent on state Sen. Clayton Hee. Unfamiliarity ratings for the others ranged from above 50 percent to more than 80 percent.

Hirono's disapproval rating was fairly high — 24 percent — but on par with that of state Sen. Ron Menor. Hee had the highest "unfavorable" rating at 27 percent of those who had an opinion about him.

Still, Hirono is in an enviable position.

"I would rather be Mazie at this stage with name recognition and a relatively large disapproval rating than be where the other candidates are that don't have much disapproval but people don't know them at all," said University of Hawai'i political science professor Neal Milner.

However, Milner warned that the poll results can't be translated into whether respondents are likely to vote for one candidate over the other.

"This is just one poll, and it's a snapshot," he said. "You can't tell much from one poll in a situation that has so many candidates."

A RISK WORTH TAKING

State Rep. Brian Schatz, who had only 15 percent of respondents form any opinion of him, said the general public hasn't started paying attention to the race yet and candidates still have time to get their messages across.

"It's still early in the campaign and we're going to work hard on the grassroots level to get our name in front of people," he said. "This is where a lot of winning candidates have been at this stage in the game."

Schatz, who decided to run for this congressional seat instead of for re-election in the state House, has put more on the line than any of the other Democratic primary candidates, but Milner said the 33-year-old is young enough to take risks without damaging his political future.

"This is an opportunity that doesn't come around that often in a state like this," Milner noted. "You risk that you get 16 voters and 14 are from your family, but hell, it's a chance to get into Congress."

REPUBLICAN PROSPECTS

With only 94 respondents who said they are likely to vote in the Republican primary and a margin of error of 10 percentage points, the differences between state Sen. Bob Hogue and former state Rep. Quentin Kawananakoa were not statistically significant, but political observers think both have a shot at claiming the seat for the Republican Party.

"I think there's a good chance," said veteran pollster Don Clegg. "This is not a slam-dunk Democratic seat, although people may think because a Democrat is coming out of it, it is," he said.

Case, a moderate Democrat, appeals to independents and Republicans. "People who have supported him might very well vote Republican," Clegg said.

Case's run for U.S. Senate is pulling some Republicans into the Democratic primary, which could have a spillover effect on the House race.

For instance, Republican Linda Baseman, of Kailua on the Big Island, plans to vote for Case, but is still waiting to hear what the House candidates have to say before she picks a favorite.

"I've heard some of the names, but there's so many of them that I don't know if one is better than the others or if one is worse than the others," she said.

The difference could come down to "if I hear something or I see them and I like the looks of them and the way they sound," said the 57-year-old housewife.

On Kaua'i, Mark Gregory, 44, a computer consultant, said he likes Kaua'i Sen. Gary Hooser, although he's not 100 percent sure he'll vote for him.

Hooser has greater popularity among Neighbor Island residents at 18 percent, compared with 11 percent across the entire district.

Gregory said the Neighbor Island ties could work in Hooser's favor. "It's very important," he said. "I think that a lot of the people on the Neighbor Islands feel that they're not represented as much as the people on O'ahu."

Jon Dusza, 38, an architect in Kamuela on the Big Island, said he is not familiar enough with any of the candidates to form an opinion.

"I'd just like to know what their views are on the future of Hawai'i and my focus is really on being a sustainable economy," he said.

He said he'll be relying on the media to help him figure out which candidate best represents his views, and he's waiting for more active campaigning.

"I haven't received anything in the mail and they haven't really been out here," he said.

Reach Treena Shapiro at tshapiro@honoluluadvertiser.com.