Even with North Korea test-firing a long-range missile that theoretically could hit Hawai'i — and a Japanese newspaper reporting that it targeted waters nearby — defense analysts and Asia experts do not believe the state and the Mainland are at much of a risk.

The conservative Japanese newspaper Sankei reported that the North's missile test this week targeted waters near Hawai'i, although at least one expert on Northeast Asia questioned the veracity of the newspaper report.

"I can't confirm the report. We are monitoring the situation closely," Pentagon spokeswoman Lt. Col. Ellen Krenke said late yesterday in response.

President Bush, during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said he was not sure of the rocket's azimuth. The missile failed 42 seconds after liftoff, suggesting a catastrophic failure of its first, or booster, stage.

"We don't know, for a fact, where it was headed," Bush said. "But, for example, one thing that Stephen (Harper) and I talked about is he (North Korean leader Kim Jong Il) could be seemingly firing a missile at the United States, say, at — I don't know, this is all speculation — but could be headed toward the Northwest of our country, and it wouldn't take much for it to get off course, and end somewhere where he may not have intended."

Bush yesterday expressed support for a draft U.N. Security Council resolution, backed by Japan, to sanction North Korea for the missile tests.

The long-range Taepodong-2 was part of a barrage of seven missiles fired by North Korea starting on the Fourth of July. All fell harmlessly into the sea, but the actions again ratcheted up concerns over the North's nuclear brinkmanship.

"Brinkmanship has long been a hallmark of North Korea's behavior," said Sheila Smith, a northeast Asia security expert at the East-West Center. "The North has a history of doing provocative things to improve its position at the bargaining table."

WAS LAUNCH A PROTEST?

Japan's daily Sankei said that Japanese and U.S. defense officials concluded that the Taepodong-2 had targeted Hawai'i after analyzing data collected from their intelligence equipment.

The newspaper quoted unidentified Japanese and U.S. government officials.

The officials decided that the missile was pointed at Hawai'i from its angle immediately after launch and the altitude it reached, after analyzing data collected by destroyers equipped with the Aegis radar combat system and RC-135S electronic reconnaissance aircraft, the newspaper said.

It said the findings support a belief North Korea intended the launch as a protest over U.S. economic sanctions against the isolated regime.

But Pentagon officials said yesterday that the brief flight of the Taepodong-2 missile made it difficult to collect useful technical data, including its intended target, its payload and whether it was a two-stage or three-stage missile.

The Taepodong-2, North Korea's most advanced missile, has a range of up to 9,300 miles and is believed capable of reaching parts of the United States with a light payload.

Hawai'i is about 4,350 miles southeast of North Korea. The newspaper said it was not immediately known why Hawai'i was targeted, but added that analysts believe Pyongyang might have tried to demonstrate that the missile could reach the United States, or because Hawai'i is home to the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Brad Glosserman, executive director of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies in Honolulu and a northeast Asia expert, questioned the veracity of the newspaper report.

"Remember, supposedly that missile blew up in 42 seconds, so I don't think it got real high," he said. "It strikes me that that's an incredibly particular reading of the data."

Should there be an imminent missile threat, though, it would be interceptor capability being developed in California and Alaska that would fire at a Hawai'i-bound missile, and probably not the Navy ships that periodically test sea-based missile defense technology off Kaua'i, officials said.

The cruiser USS Shiloh on June 22 shot down the warhead portion of a two-stage target rocket fired from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on West Kaua'i. It was the seventh actual hit in eight tries for the nation's sea-based anti-ballistic missile defense program.

The impact occurred about 100 miles high and 250 miles northwest of Kaua'i and lent additional significance in light of North Korea's insistence on conducting its own long-range missile testing.

Rick Lehner, a Missile Defense Agency spokesman, said ground-based interceptor missiles in Alaska and California would attempt to shoot down ballistic missiles heading for Hawai'i.

"They'll cover all 50 states," he said.

The Pearl Harbor cruisers Lake Erie and Port Royal have missile shoot-down capability, and other Pacific Fleet ships also will be converted to do so, but "they would have to be closer to the source of the launch" for an intercept, Lehner said.

"That particular (ship-based) capability can be sent anywhere in the world," he said.

Glosserman said North Korea's goals for the round of missile tests are political, not military, in nature. Kim is a shrewd negotiator who knows an attack on the U.S. would mean the end of his regime, he said.

Glosserman said it's questionable whether the Taepodong-2 has the range to hit Hawai'i, much less the Mainland, the test was a failure, the North may not have a workable guidance system for the missile, and it's extremely doubtful the country has the technical capability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to put on top of it.

"The Taepodong, per se, I don't think is really an issue for us and I don't know anybody who is losing sleep over it," Glosserman said.

Short- and medium-range North Korean missiles, however, could hit U.S. forces in South Korea or malfunction in test flight and hit Japan, "so on that level the United States needs to be concerned," he said.

"Launching missiles at the intersection of three nuclear powers — four if you count North Korea — in an area where six of the largest militaries in the world are rubbing shoulders ... it's just not exactly a place where you want to be sort of shooting sparks into tinder," Glosserman said.

RISK OF MISCALCULATION

Kim's father, Kim Il Sung, miscalculated in not believing the U.S. would aid South Korea in 1950, and Kim also is engaging in risky behavior, said John Pike, director of military think tank GlobalSecurity.org.

"The challenge in this is that in order for him to maintain his reputation for unpredictability, and given Kim Jong Il's predilection for negotiating in a crisis, there is always the risk that he will miscalculate," Pike said.

Although the missile tests — and reports that there could be more — "have given the president a great deal of pause," Pike said he does not think U.S. military action will be taken.

"I don't think Hawai'i is at greater risk than the rest of the country," Pike said, "and I don't think the country is at great risk."

More likely, he believes, is a missile strike next year on Iran's nuclear production capability.

Capt. Jeff Alderson, a spokes-man at U.S. Pacific Command at Camp Smith, which also has homeland defense responsibilities for Hawai'i, said the command "is obviously paying very close attention to the (North Korean) situation."

When preparations for launch were detected, the guided missile destroyers USS Curtis Wilbur and the USS Fitzgerald — both with Aegis missile tracking capability — were positioned off the North Korean coast.

CNN also reported that the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise was moved several weeks early out of the Persian Gulf for an upcoming round of military exercises in the Pacific, but military officials said the move was coincidental to the North Korean missile volley.

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.