The obituary-in-waiting for the Anglican Communion goes something like this: A nearly 500-year-old worldwide fellowship of Christian churches splits apart over disputes about gay clergy — and American liberals get most of the blame.

It's a crisp, tidy farewell. But one that may not prove true, even as gloomy predictions were rampant after the U.S. Episcopal Church wrapped up a gathering Wednesday without coming close to meeting demands of conservatives across the 77 million member communion.

Powerful considerations — both practical and theological — still stand in the way of one of the biggest meltdowns in Christian unity since the 16th century Reformation, clerics and scholars say.

"The problems are very, very deep," said Canon Martyn Minns, rector of Truro Church in Fairfax, Va., and a leader of the conservative bloc at the Episcopal meeting in Columbus, Ohio. "But I don't share the view that it's moving toward a decisive break. That's not how we do things."

What's more likely, many experts say, is a continued erosion from within — an implosion rather than explosion.

This could fold Anglicanism's big tent, the denominations rooted in the Church of England and stretching across former British colonies and the old Empire. In its place, the 38 Anglican provinces might stay linked, but in name only — each going their own way on key issues including same-sex blessings, women clergy and the ordination of openly gay priests and bishops.

"Anglicanism, as we know it, would no longer exist," said the Rev. Peter Moore, dean emeritus at the conservative Trinity Episcopal School for Ministry in Ambridge, Pa. "Something else would take its place."

The Episcopal delegates made it clear they relish their independence. The assembly rebuffed Anglican demands to temporarily halt electing gay bishops. In the final hours of the meeting, they approved a nonbinding, and vaguely worded, compromise resolution to "exercise restraint" when considering bishop candidates whose lifestyle "presents a challenge" to the communion.

But it falls far short of the moratorium proposal, which was suggested by top Anglican officials as a way to ease anger among conservatives after the 2003 election of Bishop V. Gene Robinson of New Hampshire, who lives with his longtime male partner.

Anglican traditionalists, led by African clerics, consider homosexuality a violation of Scripture and accuse gay clergy supporters of driving a wedge into the communion. Gay advocates counter that the conservatives are the dividers, by demanding a uniform view of Scripture in a communion that has welcomed a diversity of views.

Conservatives received a further jolt last Sunday when the Episcopal leadership selected Nevada Bishop Katharine Jefferts Schori as the first woman ever to head an Anglican province. Some conservative Anglican strongholds, such as Nigeria and Tanzania, do not permit the ordination of women.

The forecasts for the communion now carry an extra dose of bleakness.

Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali, of Rochester in England, was quoted as saying "virtually two religions" now exist between conservatives and liberals.

"A schism exists right now," said the Rev. George Curry, chairman of the Church Society, a conservative Anglican group based in Britain. "Everyone must recognize that the Anglican Communion is fractured beyond repair."

So what's holding up the big crumble?

For one, there is no structure within the communion to expel a member church. Anglican tradition is based on broad-brush inclusion built around common prayer and worship styles. Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan William acts as the spiritual leader, but has no power to punish or make doctrine.

"There's no way to really stop someone from being an Anglican," said Paul Handley, editor of the Church Times, a London-based weekly that covers Anglican affairs.

This leaves conservatives facing a decision on whether to walk out on their own. The threats are there, but so are the consequences.

Breakaway churches — especially in Africa or the small conservative factions in the United States — would immediately lose their stature and voice as part of a global religious group. Crucial financial assistance to African provinces could dry up. Disputes over church property might drag on for years and amass huge legal fees.

The Rev. Colin Slee, dean of Southwark Cathedral in London, called the "apocalyptical visions" for the communion overblown and part of conservative power plays "to push their agenda."

Also, no one seems to want the responsibility of toppling one of the institutional pillars of Christianity.

The Anglican Communion is the most tightly knit global Christian community to emerge from the Reformation-era breaks with the Vatican that also produced Lutherans and other mainline Protestant denominations. In recent decades, Anglican leaders have played a central role in efforts to forge wider Christian fellowship, including closer bonds with Roman Catholics and Orthodox churches.

"The Anglicans are the only team that Protestants have in the field that have this worldwide, organic unity," said David Steinmetz, a professor of Christian history at Duke Divinity School.

The Anglican struggle also represents a larger trend across Christianity: the waning influence of the West and the rapidly expanding clout of the former missionary churches in the "Global South."

The message from an Anglican rupture is one every Christian leader wants to avoid — that "old and new" Christianity cannot work together, noted Moore of the Trinity Episcopal School.

"What you have is a tragic situation developing. The split ... would take place along the lines of the North-South, rich-poor, white-non-white, educated versus the developing world," Moore said. "It's a split the Body of Christ does not need."