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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Reports point to resilient economy

By Anne D'Innocenzio
Associated Press

Concepcion Ibarra and her husband, Miguez Avalos, check out a big-screen television at Circuit City in Montebello, Calif. The latest economic reports show consumers are more confident about the U.S. economy — and more likely to splurge on such big-ticket items.

NICK UT | Associated Press

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NEW YORK — Consumer confidence rose in June and existing home sales fell less than expected in May, providing signs that the economy remains resilient and that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten credit policy more.

A widely watched barometer of consumer confidence improved slightly in June after declining in May, according to a New York-based private research group. And sales of existing homes in May fell for the third time in the past five months, though the numbers indicate the housing market is headed for a soft-landing, not a collapse.

"These reports are signs that the economy does have resilience, but it is not a Superman economy, and it does have some weaknesses," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. "The economy is still flying but at a lower altitude."

The data played into market fears that the Federal Reserve would raise a key interest rate this week and could raise it again when it meets in August. The Fed is expected to lift the rate by a quarter-percentage point to 5.25 percent at its two-day meeting starting today, as part of its campaign to combat inflation.

The New York-based Conference Board said its confidence index rose to a better-than-expected reading of 105.7 from a revised 104.7 in May. Analysts had expected 103.9.

Consumer confidence has been a bit choppy this year, following a rebound since November in the aftermath of last year's Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. In addition to May, February also saw a dip in consumer sentiment when short-lived pessimism over the job market hurt confidence.

"The slight bounce-back in confidence this month was a result of the moderate improvement in consumers' expectations," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center.

Still, consumers remain "concerned about the short-term outlook," she said

The Present Situation Index, which measures how shoppers feel now about economic conditions, declined to 132.7 from 134.1. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' outlook over the next six months, edged up to 87.6 from 85.1 in May.

Hoffman believes that the recent stock market declines and sluggishness in the job market may have soured consumers' current views of the economy, while a leveling off of energy prices in recent weeks may have helped lift consumer optimism about the economy's future.

Meanwhile, yesterday's report on declining sales of existing homes reconfirmed beliefs that the economy was moderating but remains strong. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned homes declined by 1.2 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.67 million units. The weakness was led by a big drop in sales in the Northeast.

Analysts were expecting a drop of 2.1 percent in existing home sales for the month.

Meanwhile, consumers' current assessments of the labor market were mixed. Those saying jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 28.1 percent from 29.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" declined to 19.9 percent from 20.2 percent.

The outlook for the labor market was somewhat rosier. Those expecting more jobs to become available in the next six months increased to 15.6 percent from 14.8 percent in May. Those expecting fewer jobs fell to 17 percent from 18 percent.