But, while measures are still in place, that level of concern has gone down. And it never reached the height of that during the Cold War nuclear tensions when U.S. and Soviet warships shadowed each other around the Pacific.

One way to think about the Pacific Islands today is seeing three spheres of influence.

The U.S. sphere (American Samoa to the south aside) is north of the equator and includes Hawai'i, the territory of Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas and three groups in Micronesia that are sovereign yet also in "free association" status via special compacts with the United States. They are the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Palau.

So not even counting Hawai'i, the United States has deep and continuing ties with six island entities. In fact, Kiribati (Hawai'i's nearest neighbor country) and tiny Nauru are the only Micronesian states outside the U.S. sphere.

France continues to maintain its own sphere of far-flung colonies in French Polynesia, big New Caledonia in distant Melanesia and small Wallis and Futuna between Samoa and Fiji.

Occasionally, some island leaders may talk of more independence in French Polynesia or New Caledonia, but France has made it clear it intends to remain and spends enormous amounts. So experts I talked with anticipated no change soon.

Australia (population 20 million) is active in Asia and beyond. But it is also the most influential power in the South Pacific below the equator. To a large extent the United States depends on Australia and to a lesser extent New Zealand (population 3.5 million), to organize and provide stability in the south.

With a tougher new policy, Australia has recently intervened in the Solomon Islands, impoverished Nauru and huge New Guinea, its former colony, which has some 5 million of the island regions' 6.5 million people (not including Hawai'i's 1.3 million). Fiji experienced military coups in 1987 and 2000 and its stability is carefully monitored.

Problems in the American islands have been less dramatic.

Still, waste of our aid funds in the past has been enough of a concern that Washington put tighter strings and monitoring in its new compact agreement with the three free-association states in Micronesia. Currently the Northern Marianas commonwealth is undergoing money and other problems that are being watched.

Forum heads of state meet annually. They also have a post-forum dialogue with representatives of a dozen larger nations in and around the Pacific, including the United States.

Australia, a forum member along with New Zealand, is its strongest influence. The Aussies are the driving force behind the forum's new "Pacific Plan," a blueprint for pooling and better focusing resources and moving toward a common currency.

Such investment might be welcome, but some in the West worry about forms of "checkbook diplomacy" and temptations for corruption.

What about the future?

There I got little guidance from experts. Most of the islands with the exception of New Guinea and some others in Melanesia have few land resources. Virtually all need help from larger powers who have little to gain economically aside from things like fishing rights. (Japan remains the largest aid giver.)

For pushing more accountability for aid funds and other steps, both Australia and the United States are accused by some of going from too hands-off to too heavy handed.

That so many island states remain real or virtual colonial remnants may be depressing to liberals. Yet in an age of globalization this dependency should not be too surprising. Moreover, it could change in this century.

Maybe hard experience, new steps such as the forum's Pacific Plan or some other development scheme, or even the feasibility of the once-touted undersea mining of manganese nodules will change the outlook.

You have to hope the various islands will somehow keep the most valuable parts of their cultures while finding ways to improve and advance — and that of course includes Hawai'i, which should be a leader or brighter example.