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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, May 6, 2006

Signs of slowing economy spotted

By Neil Irwin
Washington Post

WASHINGTON — Job growth slowed in April, suggesting that the U.S. economy may be cooling after roaring ahead at the start of the year.

Stock and bond prices soared as investors interpreted the weaker job growth to mean that the broader economy may be slowing to a more sustainable pace than that of recent months. That would make the Federal Reserve less likely to raise short-term interest rates in June and beyond.

But there were other signs that the nation's job market remains tight. Wages for nonsupervisory workers rose at their sharpest pace in five years, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.7 percent, below what many economists consider full employment.

The Labor Department's report yesterday offered plenty of grist for those who hold either of two views of the economy. In one, growth is coming in for a soft landing that will lead to steady expansion for the remainder of the year without rapidly rising prices. In the other, labor markets remain tight and wages are rising, which is good news for workers but potentially bad news for those worried about inflation.

"It's a mosaic of economic statistics that matter," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. "The data today is consistent with the forecast that the economy will slow through midyear. But there's also some firming of wages."

Employers created 138,000 jobs in April, compared with an average of 185,000 a month from January to March. Analysts had expected around 200,000 new jobs, and it takes about 150,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with U.S. population growth.

As the year began, economists widely expected the U.S. economy to slow in 2006 to its long-term trend growth rate of around 3 percent a year. Instead, it began the year with a 4.8 percent annualized rise in gross domestic product in the first quarter.

As long as growth continues rapidly, economists expect the Federal Reserve to continue raising its benchmark federal funds rate, seeking to slow growth enough to prevent inflation. It is widely assumed that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise that rate by a quarter-percentage point next week, but whether it will do the same at its June meeting, analysts say, depends on what economic data between now and then says about whether the long-expected slowdown has finally arrived.

Yesterday's job report gave many economists, along with stock and bond markets, confidence that it has. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 138.88 points and bond yields fell.

"We're finally seeing some moderation in growth," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group. "I think the Fed will take no action in June."

Not everyone is so sure that yesterday's job report means the economy is slowing enough as to keep inflation under control, and the Fed happy.

For one thing, most other indicators available so far of how the economy did in April look strong; a wide range of surveys and other indicators give little hint of a slump.

The unemployment rate and the number of jobs created are based on different surveys, one of households and the other of employers. In the long run, they tend to give a consistent picture of how the labor market is changing, but in the short run can give divergent readings, as was the case last month.