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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, November 19, 2006

Democrats split state with Lingle

Jerry Burris
Public Affairs Editor

So, who owns Hawai'i, politically?

The conventional wisdom, and it is embedded into the national consciousness, is that the Democrats own the state.

Until Linda Lingle came along, the Democrats won governorship after governorship, Congressional seat after Congressional seat and they steadily dominated the state Legislature.

There were a few exceptions, of course. Republican Hiram Fong held on to his U.S. Senate seat as long as he wished to hold it, Pat Saiki made it to Congress and there were a scattering of successful county officials of the GOP stripe, perhaps most notably Honolulu Mayor Neal Blaisdell.

And once in a while Hawai'i would throw its electoral votes to a Republican, although those were few and far between.

It appears that conventional wisdom and on-the-ground political reality matched up rather nicely in this last election.

Advertiser reporter Derrick DePledge recently analyzed the results of the 2006 general election and turned up some interesting tidbits: While Republican Lingle owns the state, individually, the rest of the electoral map belongs to the Democrats.

One argument is that this is the result of voters going with the familiar over the unfamiliar. We tend to vote for the folks who already hold the title. Governor? Must be Lingle. Isn't she the governor? Congressman? Must be Abercrombie.

And so on.

But if that is so, how to explain the almost total Democratic sweep of open legislative seats this year?

With one exception, Gene Ward out in Hawai'i Kai, Democrats took every open legislative seat up for grabs this year.

They even took the traditionally Republican state Senate seat vacated by Bob Hogue in Kailua. Democrats totally own the Neighbor Islands, despite ongoing predictions that the influx of newcomer residents from the Mainland will tilt the traditional union-plantation dominance of politics on Maui, Kaua'i and the Big Island.

Despite her personal popularity, Lingle and her team have not been able to build much of a Republican base. Given a choice between two unknowns (no disrespect intended) voters went with Democrats.

So we have a Lingle Party and a Democratic Party.

Can this dynamic go on forever? Certainly not. At some point, the voters will shift into a "What-have-you-done-for-me-lately?" mode.

But that moment, if you read the 2006 election results, has not yet arrived. The task ahead for Lingle and the Republicans as well as the still dominant but aging Democrats, is to come up with a bright and engaging answer to that most selfish question.

Reach Jerry Burris at jburris@honoluluadvertiser.com.