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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Don't look for cut in interest rates

By Jeannine Aversa
Associated Press

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday said he was hopeful that more moderate economic growth would continue to gradually ease inflation pressures over the next year or so.

BERNDT KAMMERER | Associated Press

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WASHINGTON — To investors and borrowers who are betting that the Federal Reserve is so concerned about the economy slowing that it will soon slice interest rates, don't count on it, suggests Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Even with the economy in a slowdown mode, Bernanke made clear yesterday that policymakers want to see inflation continue to recede — comments that economists interpreted as indicating that interest rates won't be falling any time in the near future.

"There is not even a contemplation of easing," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

The slowdown "appears to be taking place roughly along the lines envisioned," Bernanke observed in remarks to the National Italian American Foundation in New York.

Outside housing and autos, economic activity remains solid, he said. "Overall, the economy is likely to expand at a moderate pace going forward," Bernanke said.

The Fed chief also was hopeful that more moderate economic growth would continue to gradually ease inflation pressures over the next year or so.

Yet, risks from inflation or a worse-than-expected housing slump could throw a wrench in the outlook, Bernanke said.

The slump in the once-sizzling housing market could turn out to be deeper than expected, putting an even greater drag on overall economic activity. Or, Bernanke surmised, economic growth could rebound more strongly than expected, which could lead to a flare-up in inflation.

"A failure of inflation to moderate as expected would be especially troublesome," he said.

Overall inflation has showed signs of improving in recent months as once-surging energy prices have calmed down. However, "core" prices — which exclude energy and food and are closely watched by the Fed — still remain "uncomfortably high," Bernanke said. Looking ahead, Bernanke said he expects those core prices to moderate gradually over the next year or so.

But he made clear the Fed will keep a close eye on the matter, especially on labor costs, which can spark inflation if they grow rapidly.

Although the Federal Reserve has left interest rates alone since August, Bernanke repeated the central bank's interest in keeping open the possibility of a rate increase down the road, if such action would be needed to fend off inflation.

To thwart inflation, the Fed had hoisted interest rates 17 times since June 2004, its longest string of increases in its history. With the economy slowing, the Fed has stayed on the sidelines since August. Many economists believe the Fed will keep its finger on the interest rate pause button when it meets next on Dec. 12 — the last such session this year — and probably in much of next year as well.

Economists said Bernanke's comments dashed hopes — held by some in financial markets — that the Fed would soon cut interest rates. "His speech pours water on any notion of a rate cut around the corner," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.

Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, agreed, adding: "I think he offered a message of some optimism on the U.S. economy but acknowledged the wide uncertainty that exists in things that could go wrong for the economy."

Bernanke's remarks followed a batch of mostly downbeat economic reports issued yesterday.

Orders placed to U.S. factories for manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in more than six years. The median price of existing home sales last month dropped to $221,000, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record. Consumer confidence, meanwhile, sank in November.

Economic growth during the July-to-September quarter slowed to a pace of just 1.6 percent, the most sluggish in more than three years. That mostly reflected the housing slump. Investment in home building was cut by the largest amount in 15 years.