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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, November 29, 2006

The long home-resale party may be over

By Martin Crutsinger
Associated Press

Sales of existing homes fell in 38 states — this house is in California — last summer, led by steep declines in Arizona, Florida and California, as the once-booming housing market showed further signs of a steep slowdown. October sales crept up ever so slightly, but prices plummeted in a record freefall. In Hawai'i, specifically on O'ahu, October sales continued a downward slide as prices flattened, though still up from 2005.

Associated Press library photo

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WASHINGTON — Sales of existing homes posted a tiny increase in October, but the median home price fell by a record amount. Analysts forecast more price declines in coming months as the once-booming housing market undergoes a painful correction.

The National Association of Realtors said yesterday that existing home sales edged up 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.24 million last month. It was the first increase after seven consecutive monthly declines.

However, the median price for a home sold dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.

It marked the third straight month that median prices have fallen compared with the same period a year ago, the longest stretch of such declines on record. The median is the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

In O'ahu's resale market, the number of homes sold has been declining most of this year, and prices, while still higher than a year earlier, are flattening. In October, the median price for a previously owned single-family home on O'ahu was $645,000, up 4 percent from a year ago, but the number of homes sold was down 28 percent.

David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said he expected nationwide home prices to continue falling for the rest of the year as sellers, accustomed to the booming market conditions of previous years, reluctantly cut their prices.

"Many buyers remain on the sidelines," Lereah said. "After a period of price adjustment, we'll see more confidence in the market and a lift to home sales should be apparent in the first quarter of 2007."

The once-booming housing market, which had been one of the economy's standout performers for the past five years, has experienced a significant slowdown this year, which has dragged down overall economic growth.

Some analysts have worried that the correction in housing could be severe enough to drag the entire country into a recession. However, those fears have eased in recent months as a big fall in gasoline and other energy prices has provided support for consumer spending.

For October, sales were down 2.9 percent in the Northeast and 1.2 percent in the South. However, they rose by 6.4 percent in the West and were unchanged in the Midwest.

The inventory of unsold homes rose by 1.9 percent in October to 3.85 million units, the second highest total on record. It would take 7.4 months to exhaust the backlog of unsold homes at the October sales pace.

Analysts predicted further price declines with inventories of both existing and new homes hovering near record levels.

Lereah said the big price decline in the South could represent not only sellers adjusting their asking prices but also a changing mix of sales, with lower-priced areas of the South such as Texas seeing an increase in sales while high-priced areas such as the Washington, D.C., area and Florida suffer sales declines.