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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, October 1, 2006

GOP may run tough campaigns

Jerry Burris
Public Affairs Editor

Now that the overwhelming distraction of the Democratic contests for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House 2nd District are over, it is time to turn more political attention to other races and other parties.

Many people assumed that those two races were, in fact, the election. Whoever wins the primary is the de facto winner in November.

Well, that might be so. But it is not an argument you should make in front of Bob Hogue, running for the House seat, or Cynthia Thielen, running at the request of the Republican Party, for the Senate.

These two GOP stalwarts are no slouches at campaigning. And interestingly, they match up well with Gov. Linda Lingle as relatively moderate, easy-to-get-along-with Republicans.

They will not go down easily against the Democratic juggernaut working to elect Daniel Akaka and congressional candidate Mazie Hirono.

Within the Republican Party, Thielen comes across as a virtual liberal, with strong environmental credentials and a strong record as a fighter for women's rights.

Hogue is more traditionally conservative, generally backing President Bush on issues such as tax policy and the war in Iraq. But he does not come across as an idealogue. If pressed, his Democratic colleagues in the state Senate will acknowledge he is a reasonable guy who is willing to work across the aisle on important issues.

The challenge now for Republicans is to develop a coherent, unifying theme that can cut across the Lingle re-election effort, resonate well with Thielen and Hogue and drop down into the state legislative races.

They need each other to make this work.

If the GOP can come up with an appealing universal theme that can convincingly be sounded by Lingle, the congressional candidates and the folks running for state House and Senate, they have a real possibility of making political change.

That's particularly so since the Democrats, at this point, are a house divided. Yes, the Democrats running for the congressional seat vacated by Ed Case spoke with one voice on most major issues, including taxes, the war and federal support for education.

And yes, the majority of the Democratic establishment backed Akaka with a ferocity that hasn't been seen in years.

But one has to remember that some 45 percent of the folks who participated in the Democratic primary (and most of them were Democrats or independents) were listening to a different message: the message of transition, change and moderation being sold by Ed Case.

So, can the GOP take Case's message, wrap it in Republican ribbons and bows, add their own taste of Island-style conservatism and make it work from the top of the ticket to the bottom?

While it is likely that Democrats will remain dominant in both the state House and Senate, there are opportunities for the Republicans to make gains. That's certainly Lingle's hope, where a majority in one house or another would be paradise but even enough votes to sustain vetoes would make her happy.

Of the 12 seats up in the Senate, Republicans offer competition in seven races and own another outright in Sam Slom, who was unopposed. In a couple of those races, the GOP looks downright competitive.

In the House, the Republicans are competing in 45 of the 51 seats up for grabs and already control two, through Thielen and Colleen Meyer, who were elected outright in the primary.

Again, some of those Republican candidates look like sacrificial lambs, but there are close to two dozen races where the GOP either has an incumbent running or a strong challenger.

The trick now will be to offer those candidates a leg up with party-wide financial support and thematic ideas that give voters the idea that this is a party with a message and a mission.

You can bet that's what the Democrats will be up to. Can the GOP do it as well?

Reach Jerry Burris at jburris@honoluluadvertiser.com.