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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted at 11:34 a.m., Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Stocks pull back amid concerns about the economy

Advertiser Staff

NEW YORK — Stocks pulled back today after aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. kicked off earnings season with a weaker-than-expected profit report and minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting stoked concerns about the economy.

Stocks fell sharply following reports that an aircraft crashed into a building in New York City, but rebounded when government officials said the incident didn't appear to be terrorism.

Though earnings news loomed large on Wall Street, many investors had been focused on gaining a clearer picture of where the Fed stood on interest rates and inflation. The Fed minutes dashed hopes, however slim, that the central bank would soon consider lowering interest rates and raised questions about the well-being of the economy.

"These minutes give no hint that the Fed is going to ease. The markets have this kind of dovish Fed in mind that is itching to pull the trigger to cut rates," said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. "Some of the talk in the stock market about the Fed giving them a little present in the form a rate cut is overly optimistic."

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 15.04, or 0.13 percent, to 11,852.13.

Broader stock indicators were down. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 3.47, or 0.26 percent, to 1,349.95, and the Nasdaq composite index was down 7.16, or 0.31 percent, at 2,308.27.

Bond prices fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rising to 4.78 percent from 4.76 percent late yesterday. The dollar was down against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Light, sweet crude settled down 93 cents at $57.59 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The notion that the economy is slowing adequately to reduce inflation has given stocks a boost in recent weeks, helping push the Dow Jones industrial average to a string of record-setting sessions. Yesterday, the Dow set its fourth record close in two weeks, closing at 11,867.17.

The Fed minutes pointed to a slowing economy and falling energy prices as driving its decision to hold interest rates steady last month. In August, the Fed wrestled over its decision before ultimately holding rates steady. Prior to that, the central bank had raised short-term interest rates 17 straight times since 2004 as it sought to keep inflation in check. Today's minutes indicated that sizable concerns remain about inflation, though the threat is expected to dissipate as the economy slows.

Today's decline in stocks occurred despite a report that the federal budget deficit fell to about $247.7 billion in 2006, its lowest level in four years.

Alcoa's quarterly report traditionally marks the start of earnings season and appeared to fuel concerns that corporate profits have not held up as well as hoped amid a slowing economy.

"I don't think today's events are a sign of a trend. I think in the aggregate, (earnings) will still beat the consensus expectations," said Steven Goldman, chief market strategist at Weeden & Co.

Alcoa said seasonal slowness and lower metal prices hurt third-quarter results. The news displeased investors despite an 86 percent increase in profits. Alcoa, one of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow, closed down $1.44, or 5.09 percent, at $26.85.

Another materials producer, Monsanto Co., which makes herbicide and other agricultural products, said today its fiscal fourth-quarter loss widened as sales fell in its seeds and genomics segment. The company, which closed down $2.46, or 5.3 percent, to $43.95, issued a fiscal 2007 forecast that came in well below Wall Street's expectation.

Mutual-fund manager Legg Mason Inc. closed down $18.16, or 17.24 percent, at $87.15 after warning that its fiscal second-quarter profit would fall well short of Wall Street's forecast. The warning is the company's third in a row since gaining control of Citigroup Inc.'s asset-management business late last year.

Genentech Inc., the biotechnology company, dropped $1.45 to $84.15 after third-quarter sales of several of its drug treatments missed Wall Street's forecasts. Its overall profit was up 58 percent, aided by a strong start for an eye-disease drug.

CNET Networks Inc., which publishes technology news online, said Shelby Bonnie resigned as its chairman and chief executive after a review of the company's stock-options practices. CNET fell 76 cents, or 7.68 percent, to $9.14.

McAfee Inc. rose 85 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $26.64. The maker of antivirus software said it fired President Kevin Weiss, and announced that CEO and Chairman George Samenuk would retire after a stock options inquiry found accounting problems that will result in a restatement of financial results.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.59 billion shares compared with 1.50 billion shares yesterday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was down 4.17, or 0.56 percent, at 741.71.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 0.47 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.01 percent, Germany's DAX index was up 0.03 percent, and France's CAC-40 was up 0.06 percent.