More than 33,000 voters have cast early ballots for Hawai'i's Nov. 7 election so far, but overall voter turnout is expected to be low — and that could benefit politicians already in office.

Low turnout generally benefits incumbents because they tend to have better name recognition and a stronger political base than challengers, said veteran Honolulu pollster and political consultant Don Clegg.

And in this case, incumbents in the biggest races are also in strong political positions, with well-organized supporters and plenty of campaign cash.

After a strong showing in the Sept. 23 primary election, Democratic U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka is heavily favored to beat challenging Republican state Rep. Cynthia Thielen.

And Republican Gov. Linda Lingle is widely expected to fend off Democratic former state Sen. Randall Iwase's challenge.

"I think this will be a pretty lackluster general election," Clegg said. "There are no big issues at risk here, and the Akaka and Lingle races seem to be slam dunks."

Akaka raised more than $2 million before the primary and has more than $203,000 left, according to federal campaign finance reports filed yesterday. Thielen has raised less than $300,000.

Lingle reported having $2.3 million on hand the day of the primary, while Iwase had less than $6,000. New reports for the governor's race are due today, but the situation is not expected to change significantly.

It's harder to say how a low turnout would affect the 2nd Congressional District race between Democratic former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono and Republican state Sen. Bob Hogue, since neither currently holds the seat they're running for, Clegg said.

But the district includes only part of the state's population, and the race has drawn limited attention, so it probably won't contribute significantly to overall turnout, he said.

A higher turnout could benefit Akaka, Iwase and Hirono, since a majority of the state's voters are Democrats, said University of Hawai'i political science professor and ombudsman Neal Milner.

But it's usually most important for any candidate to turn out voters who support them specifically, rather than just increase overall turnout, Milner said.

"In this day and age, candidates and political parties have become much better at targeting," he said. "The question of who you can turn out is more important."

Republicans may have developed an edge in identifying likely supporters and persuading them to cast ballots, he said.

Encouraging early voting via absentee ballots can be a crucial part of that strategy, Milner said. But absentee voting is also catching on because many people simply find it convenient, he noted.

More than one out of every three voters who participated in the primary cast an absentee ballot, and a similar proportion is expected to do so in the general election.

Voters have been casting absentee ballots in the mail for more than a week, and walk-in absentee polling places have been open since Monday.

The bulk of the 33,000 absentee ballots cast were on O'ahu, where more than 19,000 mail-in ballots have been received, and more than 3,000 voters cast early ballots in person.

Another strategy is to create enough ambivalence or doubt among an opponent's supporters to keep them from voting, Milner said.

Courting an opponent's support base can be one way to do that, and running a negative campaign that turns off uncommitted voters is another, he said.

Hawai'i is already notorious for voter apathy, and there's no indication that this election will change that, Milner said.

Only about four out of 10 registered voters cast ballots in the primary, and many adults who are eligible to vote have not registered.

And only about 7,000 more voters registered after the primary — fewer than did so between any primary and general elections in the past decade, state records show.

Reach Johnny Brannon at jbrannon@honoluluadvertiser.com.