Three years after an intense public focus on Hawai'i's crystal methamphetamine problem, "ice" arrests are heading toward a four-year low, and law enforcement officials say the end of the epidemic might be in sight.

"We are experiencing the first signs of recovering from the ice epidemic," said U.S. Attorney Ed Kubo. "The signs are there statewide, and even island to island. For the most part it seems to be a very good sign. It isn't controlled, but we are experiencing the first signs of recovering."

In addition to the plummeting arrests, officials are citing the rising cost of the drug — even as the quality of the "ice" on the street is decreasing — as evidence that enforcement efforts are succeeding.

"We've been very aggressive in taking down drug trafficking organizations which extend from Hawai'i into California, Nevada, and Arizona, and we've taken down people with Mexican connections. We've been cutting off the lines very aggressively," Kubo said. "In our wiretap cases, we've been hearing certain suspects saying that ice is too hot in Hawai'i. Our informants confirm that the word out on the street is 'be careful because if you're dealing in ice, you stand to be targeted.' "

Through July, Honolulu police have made 273 arrests and seized 52 pounds of the drug, compared with 719 arrests and 188 pounds seized in all of 2005.

In addition, ice being taken off the streets is half as potent as that of three years ago, with purity levels between 40 percent and 45 percent, compared with 90 percent to 98 percent in 2003.

Law enforcement officials also attribute that to their aggressive efforts to seize drug shipments. As the supply dwindles, dealers are forced to stretch their supply of crystal methamphetamine by "cutting" their product with substances that allow the user to inhale or inject it.

"Those are the individuals cutting and trying to increase their profits and we are looking at definitely having an impact on them," said Anthony D. Williams, assistant special agent in charge of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's Honolulu district office.

Honolulu police say any success in the war against ice is attributed to the combined efforts of state and federal law enforcement, who collaborated to seize "record amounts" of methamphetamine last year.

"The demand (for crystal methamphetamine) might be out there, but the supply is not, and the purity of meth is very poor," said Maj. Kevin Lima, head of the Honolulu Police Department's Narcotics/Vice division. "Last year everything you saw was 95 percent (pure) or higher. This year you are seeing purity levels from 40 to 45 percent."

Police hope crystal methamphetamine addicts will reject the purity level of the drug available on the streets, setting off a chain reaction that will help shut down many Mainland drug trafficking organizations. If there are fewer suppliers and users, the level of crime in local communities should dwindle, officials say.

"The fact that the supply is low and the purity is poor, that's better for our community," Lima said. "Hopefully it will lead to a reduction of crimes associated with crystal methamphetamine."

Even as the purity is decreasing, the price is going up. A pound of methamphetamine is selling for $30,000 this year, compared with $24,000 last year.

The high cost of crystal methamphetamine is significant because users are priced out of the market and it hinders the ability of drug traffickers to move their product, law enforcement officials said. Dealers have to charge more money to get rid of what supply they have, and users have to spend more to get high, officials said.

Another positive indicator cited by law enforcement is the state's declining property crime rate, which has fallen every year since 2002. That, law officials say, is a sign that offenses associated with drug users and distributors are falling off. These include such property crimes as burglary, theft and car theft, Kubo said.

There were 42,383 property crimes in Hawai'i last year compared with 44,121 in 2004, 48,306 in 2003 and 54,670 in 2002.

Alan H. Shinn, executive director of the Coalition for a Drug Free Hawai'i, said while crystal methamphetamine's popularity may be fading, calls to the coalition's prevention and treatment resource centers remain steady. He said he feels law enforcement's success has motivated many to seek help rather than spiral down the destructive path to addiction and law breaking.

"People are past the blaming stage and they want resources. Maybe there is a shift in the paradigm here," Shinn said. "Are we turning the corner? I don't know. I think the jury is still out. I'm not convinced, but I want to believe it. I really want to see that our efforts at prevention, treatment, education, and enforcement are paying off."

COCAINE RESURGENCE

Even as officials are welcoming the drop in "ice" activity, they are warily watching the resurgence of cocaine.

Cocaine arrests in Honolulu are on pace to hit a five-year high, spurred by a reaction to the rising cost of crystal methamphetamine and law enforcement pressure on ice crimes.

Through the first seven months of the year, Honolulu police made 131 cocaine arrests, compared with 135 in all of 2005 and 214 in all of 2004.

Law enforcement officials say the users and drug trafficking organizations that fueled the ice trade are turning to cocaine to stay addicted and in business. The price of an ounce of cocaine has remained steady at $1,500, but police are making more arrests and federal officials are noticing increased attempts to smuggle the drug into the state.

"We're still seeing an increase in cocaine trafficking," said the DEA's Williams. "It's the same organizations and distribution networks (that profited from crystal methamphetamine)."

Police say cocaine was prevalent in Hawai'i in the 1980s and early 1990s before the rise of ice.

In the late 1990s, drug dealers began strapping methamphetamine to their bodies and boarding Honolulu-bound flights from Las Vegas, California and Asia. Others ship the drug in containers through the mail, but most of the methamphetamine and cocaine in the state comes initially from Mexico and California, according to the DEA.

DANGEROUS DILUTION

In addition to the rise in cocaine, officials also are concerned about the health implications of the lower-quality "ice."

State health officials caution that the shrinking supply will force dealers to dilute existing product with chemicals that could be toxic and cause harmful after-effects.

"When we talk about the relative purity with methamphetamine, stuff from the Philippines and Korea is 100 percent pure, they make good stuff. The stuff here is made according to the competence of the kitchen pharmacist and may be anywhere from 40, 60, 80 percent pure," said Dr. William Haning, director of the addiction medicine service at the John A. Burns School of Medicine.

"The problem for the user is what is that other percent made of? Is it pure toxic crap? It can be anything, phosphorous, it can be lead, or it can be phosphates and nitrates in the impurities."

Addicts will still need their fix, but may not buy the drug if word gets out that the stuff on the street is not as pure, Haning said.

"There will be impurities that were unintentionally put there, and they will affect the inhalation flash point, the aftereffects and the taste," he said. "There is no limit; you can just keep stepping on it over and over. The stuff that's being diluted just won't get bought."

OFFICIALS SKEPTICAL

Decreasing arrests and seizures indicate that methamphetamine isn't making its way into the state, but those preaching drug prevention and treatment for addicts argue that as one drug fades in popularity another rises.

Drug treatment admissions for methamphetamine rose steadily from fiscal year 2003 to 2005 before falling off slightly in 2006, according to the state Department of Health.

Rising prices and falling purity levels mean addicts will seek out other ways to get high.

"They are turning to other things — cocaine, pakalolo, heroin and alcohol," said Andy Anderson, CEO of Hina Mauka, a 45-bed facility that is the largest provider of substance abuse treatment in the state. "That's the nature of addiction.

"If the heat is on or if the supply dries up for one particular drug, something else is going to take its place. We've got a waiting list and so do most of the residential treatment programs that I'm aware of. More and more people are showing up for treatment because they don't want to go to jail necessarily and, by cooperating with law enforcement, we are able to reach many people."

Reach Peter Boylan at pboylan@honoluluadvertiser.com.