Updated at 8:36 a.m., Monday, April 30, 2007
Guard enlistment up, but long-term outlook doubtful
By Audrey McAvoy
Associated Press
"I always wanted to join the service, I just wasn't sure which one," said the high school senior. "It's a step for me to become a man."
The Hawai'i Guard attracted 388 newly enlisted soldiers during the year ending last September. That's better than the annual average of 300 to 350. Nationally, just over 69,000 people joined the Army Guard last fiscal year, up 40 percent from 49,000 in 2004.
The question is, will it last?
With the military rotating citizen-soldiers through Iraq and Afghanistan every few years, experts are concerned the enthusiasm for the Guard may wane and fewer people will want to join and remain members.
"We shouldn't say, 'OK the recruiting and retention numbers look OK, let's relax,"' said Christine Wormuth, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. "It's a fairly brittle situation."
FREQUENT MOBILIZATIONS
The military relies heavily on National Guard troops for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It also has sent Guard members to the Horn of Africa and other less-noticed posts in the campaign against terrorism.
At one point in 2004, Guard and reserve troops, many of whom are part-time and have civilian jobs when not deployed, made up 40 percent of U.S. forces in Iraq.
The Pentagon this month informed 13,000 Guard troops in Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio and Oklahoma they should get ready to deploy again by early next year. Many of these troops returned from their last mission just two years ago.
It is not clear whether the military will need to continue mobilizing Guard soldiers this often.
In January, the Pentagon said it would give Guard members five years at home between involuntary deployments. But the latest call-up indicates it is having trouble meeting that goal.
This worries some Guard members.
Deployments can be hard on families left behind, as spouses are left to cope with abruptly becoming a single parent.
Some employers, particularly small businesses, struggle with lost sales and higher expenses when their workers are called up.
It's even tougher for self-employed Guard members who must figure out how to keep their businesses running in their absence.
'ON PINS AND NEEDLES EVERY TIME'
State Rep. Mark Takai, a member of the House military affairs committee, said recent deployments have been difficult for some soldiers and their families.
Hawai'i Guard members "are on pins and needles every time there is a rumor, or a newspaper or a media report suggesting that deployment is right around the corner," said Takai, who is also a captain and a preventative medicine officer in the Army Guard.
Wormuth said she believes Guard members will accept being deployed once every six years, the frequency the Pentagon is targeting.
But she said there's a real possibility that recruitment and retention will suffer in Hawai'i and other states if the military continues to deploy Guard soldiers once every third or fourth year.
"We're asking these people to serve and serve and serve, but we're not building the systems that make it easy for them to do so," Wormuth said.
Like the recruitment data, retention figures are also currently strong.
Army Guard units across the country lost 56,000 soldiers last fiscal year, some 5,000 fewer than in 2004.
In Hawai'i, 528 soldiers left the Army Guard during the year ended in September. That's more than the annual average of 300 but it includes those who couldn't leave the prior two years because the 29th Brigade Combat Team deployed to Iraq.
Even so, a March study by the Commission on the National Guard and Reserves echoed Wormuth's concern, citing concerns about the stress deployments impose on families and employers.
"The long-term viability for both recruiting and retention remain highly problematic," the study said.
The commission, whose members are appointed by the defense secretary and the House and Senate Armed Services committees, said the Guard and Reserves were being used as an operational force even though they were organized as a reserve forces for the Cold War.
The commission plans to issue a final report in January that will include recommendations for how the Guard should adapt to changing times.
HAWAI'I WAY DOWN ON LIST OF UNITS TO BE MOBILIZED
Maj. Gen. Robert G.F. Lee, the Hawai'i Guard commander, said his soldiers aren't likely to be among units mobilized soon because most just returned from Iraq a little over a year ago.
"Hawai'i is way down the list" of units to be mobilized, Lee said in an interview.
He added that the Pentagon's January decision to hire and train 92,000 additional active-duty Marines and soldiers should reduce the need for the military to call on the Guard so frequently.
He also likes how the Pentagon has decided to mobilize Guard members for no more than one year each deployment instead of 18 months.
Lee praised these moves as a good steps toward preparing the military for a "long war" against terror he said would take 50 to 75 years.
Even so, Lee said younger Hawai'i Guard members are adopting a wait-and-see outlook before deciding to stay in for the rest of their careers.
"For them it's 'I want to see what the next two, three or four years is like as opposed to the next ten,"' Lee said. "Because of the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, I don't think anyone can look that far out."
Guard at a glance
RECRUITING DURING WAR: The Hawai'i Guard attracted 388 newly enlisted soldiers during the year ending last September. That's better than the annual average of 300 to 350. Nationally, just over 69,000 people joined the Army Guard last fiscal year, up 40 percent from 49,000 in 2004.
WILL IT LAST?: The Pentagon told 13,000 Guard troops in Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio and Oklahoma this month to prepare for deployment early next year. Many had only returned from their last mission just two years ago. But in January, the Pentagon said it would give Guard members five years at home between involuntary deployments. That concerns some Guard members.
THE ANALYSIS: Christine Wormuth, a senior fellow at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said she believes Guard members will accept being deployed once every six years. But she said there's a possibility recruitment and retention will suffer if the military continues to deploy Guard soldiers once every third or fourth year.