HCC will not be the favorite and could be staring at a big early deficit simply because — for one of the few times since the club started its string of state titles in 2001 — Hawaiian is outnumbered. HCC qualified 30 crews — 23 of them top seeds– from the Maui County Hawaiian Canoe Association's seven-regatta season. HCC also bought one lane for the 39-race state regatta, bringing its total to 31.

Lanikai has 38 state crews and Kailua has 36.

"I think we are the underdog this year, but I think we are going to give it a great shot,'' HCC head coach Diane Ho said to The Maui News. "We are going to enjoy the role, but I wish the gap were a little closer. There were a whole bunch of things that were in operation this year that made that a difficult task.''

One of the factors limiting Hawaiian this year was the addition of a fourth division to the club standings. The AAA Division this season will be for clubs with up to 20 crews entered, while the new AAAA Division will be for all clubs with more than 20. Ho said the new limit for the second-tier division – up from 17 last year – made purchasing lanes that were not filled more difficult.

HCC, winner of 23 straight county championships, should know just what it has to do after the 12th race tomorrow. It has only five crews in the first 12 races, while Lanikai has 11.

"I have been wanting us to be an underdog because of what people have been saying that we always have the most crews, but seven crews is a lot,'' Ho said. "That could be a 50-to-60-point deficit, so we have to be on our game.''

Lanikai is the last club other than Hawaiian to win the big-club state crown, at Keehi Lagoon in 2000. Earlier this season, HCC officials bemoaned the fact that the O'ahu Hawaiian Canoe Racing Association earned a fifth lane per event in the 14-lane state formula, which is based on total number of paddlers.

That became a moot point for Lanikai — all 38 of its qualifying crews earned berths by finishing in the top four of the OHCRA standings. Lanikai's depth illustrates the uphill climb HCC faces to keep its string alive. The MCHCA gets only two qualifying spots per state race.

"We have to congratulate (Lanikai) on what they did because even though they had that fifth lane, they managed to qualify everyone on the old system, on four,'' Ho said. "It really speaks to the competitiveness of the Maui association that we have only 31 crews.''

The longest streak of state big-club titles is nine, by Outrigger from 1984 to 1992.

Kahana, the second-place finishers in the MCHCA, and Kihei, which took third, both have 19 crews entered and appear to be title contenders in the AAA Division. Only Kane'ohe has the maximum 20 crews entered in that division.

HCC will do one thing it never has at a state regatta.

The entire girls 16 crew of Lulu Kohl, Tiana Ka'au'amo, Shalei DeFrancia, Jessie Burnett, Amie Kohl and Cory Kawaiaea will move up to compete in the girls 18 race a few minutes after the 16 event.

The girls 18 race will start a crucial portion of the regatta for HCC.

"If we are losing by 30 or 40 after that initial stretch, then we can beat them,'' said HCC keiki coach and veteran steersman Paul Lu'uwai. "If we are even by the junior or senior women, we will win. We have more quality at the end and we know they are going to be stretched awfully thin also, so we feel good about that.''

HCC outnumbers Lanikai in top seeds from the respective associations, 23-12. Lanikai also drew outside lanes in two-thirds of its entries.

"Two-thirds of our crews are inside, so if it is windy it is really going to be to our favor,'' Lu'uwai said. "So we are praying to the wind gods for once because we need all the help we can get.''

Kawaiaea, a senior at Kamehameha Schools Maui, said that her crew is ready for the challenge. She knows that every point in the system — which awards 15 for a win and 13 for second, and runs down to one for 14th — will be crucial.

Kohls, Burnett and Ka'au'amo all attend King Kekaulike, while DeFrancia goes to Baldwin. The same six won the girls 15 state crown last year.

"We have been comparing times from O'ahu and we know we have to do our best, paddle together,'' Kawaiaea said. "The times are close, but we are a little bit ahead. That adds some pressure, makes us a little nervous, but that can be good. We know we have to step it up and just do our best.''

After the first third of the regatta, it will be a catch-me-if-you-can chase for HCC with Lanikai. Kailua could also be in the title picture.

"It is pretty huge,'' Lu'uwai said. "We are expecting to be down between 40 and 70 points after the 18 boys, but head to head out of the 31 crews we have, 21 of them are better than Lanikai. And 10 of their crews are better than ours, but they have seven crews that we don't even have.

"We don't know if we can break that lead that they are going to have, but we are going to try our darnedest. We are going to give it all we have got.''