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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, August 15, 2007

For emergency responders, storms teach valuable lessons

 •  Flossie soaks Big Isle, fades to tropical storm

By Jan TenBruggencate
Advertiser Staff Writer

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Duane Hosaka, Civil Defense staff officer, awaits hurricane developments at the county Civil Defense Agency in Hilo.

Photos by REBECCA BREYER | The Honolulu Advertiser

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For areas not hard-hit, is there a benefit to having gone through a hurricane alert?

"It's an opportunity to tell people, we may have dodged the bullet this time, but I really want to emphasize that it's not a matter of if, but when."

Gen Iinuma | Maui County Civil Defense

"After each tropical season, the

computer modelers go through to find out where they did well and where they did poorly, and they update the models to make them better."

Ian Morrison | meteorologist, National Weather Service

"Each time, we get a good sense of people's personal preparedness. One thing we've found is that unprepared people tend to overestimate the ability of government to meet their needs after an event."

Mark Marshall | Kaua'i Civil Defense

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Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Glen Honda, deputy chief of the Hawai'i County Fire Department, and police Sgt. Aimee Wana work at the county Civil Defense Agency in Hilo as Hurricane Flossie approaches.

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While emergency response personnel focused yesterday on the primary task of preparing for then-Hurricane Flossie, they also collected data that could help them better prepare for the next potential disaster.

At the National Weather Service, each new storm creates an opportunity to test computerized models against the real thing, and then to fine-tune the models.

Service meteorologist Ian Morrison said models are reviewed against actual storm information after each hurricane season. Meteorologists study which models worked, and try to tweak the ones that worked less well, to improve their predictions.

"Every year the models are updated, and they take in smaller and smaller features from the environment," he said.

During Hurricane Flossie, the weather service has been pleased with the guidance from its models of the hurricane's track. But predictions of changes in the storm's strength have been less accurate.

"The track forecasting has improved greatly, and now they're going to be focusing on the intensity forecasts" during the season-end updates of models, Morrison said.

Hawai'i civil defense authorities say each new storm or tsunami warning also is an opportunity to train both the emergency response teams statewide and the residents.

But they also recognize that there is potential danger that people will ignore warnings simply because there hasn't been a severe hurricane strike in many years, or a severe tsunami in several decades.

"There's always the fear about crying 'wolf,' " by issuing so many warnings that people stop responding to them, said Mark Marshall, administrator of Kaua'i Civil Defense.

On Kaua'i, which has gone through two severe hurricanes in the past quarter century, that's not so much of a problem. Most residents seem to be alert to dangers, stock up on supplies in advance of threats and pay attention to emergency announcements.

But on Maui, where there hasn't been a hurricane strike in most people's memory, officials must work hard at promoting emergency preparedness.

"Maui hasn't experienced any kind of severe weather in several decades. A number of people around here haven't experienced severe flooding and damage," said Gen Iinuma, Maui County's Civil Defense administrator.

"We need to raise awareness levels. What would have happened if this storm were one degree (60 miles) more north," he said.

O'ahu Civil Defense administrator Peter Hirai said that within the emergency response community, every storm is a training opportunity.

"It's improving the way we plan," he said. "Every time we pull out the contingency plan, we find something and say, 'Why didn't we think of that last time?" And we update the contingency plan."

Reach Jan TenBruggencate at jant@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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