WASHINGTON — The Iraqi government is strained by rampant violence, deep sectarian differences among its political parties and stymied leadership, the nation's top spy analysts concluded in a sobering assessment released Thursday.

With the country teetering between success and failure in the next year, Iraq's neighbors will continue to try to expand their leverage in the fractured state in anticipation that the United States will soon leave, the new report found.

It predicted that the Iraqi government "will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months" because of criticism from various Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions. "To date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively," it said.

There was a glimmer of backhanded hope for the Iraqi leadership in the often dark analysis: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will continue to benefit from the belief among other Shiite leaders that "searching for a replacement could paralyze the government."

The new National Intelligence Estimate was an update of another high-level assessment prepared six months ago by the top analysts scattered across all 16 U.S. spy agencies. The CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency were the key contributors to Thursday's report, which found some security progress but elusive hopes for reconciliation among Iraq's feuding groups.

U.S. intelligence preparing grim assessment on Iran's political situation, officials say

WASHINGTON — A draft intelligence report on Iran suggests a change in the Tehran regime appears unlikely any time soon despite growing public anger over the country's economic woes, U.S. officials said Thursday.

The report also anticipates little progress in getting Iran to halt its nuclear program or stop supporting militant groups in the region, officials familiar with the draft said on condition of anonymity because the report has not been released.

The latest in a series of reports from the nation's 16 intelligence agencies, the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is nearly complete and could be shared with President Bush and other policymakers within weeks, said the officials. One said it is expected to be completed as soon as next week.

It is one of four reports the intelligence community is wrapping up on the Persian Gulf. Two others look at Iran's nuclear program and its military and conventional threat.

And an update on the situation in Iraq was released Thursday.

Sen. Warner says Bush should bring some troops home by Christmas as warning shot to Iraqis

WASHINGTON — Sen. John Warner, a prominent Republican on military affairs, urged President Bush on Thursday to start bringing some troops home from Iraq by Christmas. Such a move would send a powerful warning to the Baghdad government that time is running out, said Warner, R-Va.

Warner said the president next month should announce the withdrawal of a certain number of troops to send a "sharp and clear message throughout the region and the United States" that the commitment in Iraq is not open ended.

"We simply cannot as a nation stand and continue to put our troops at continuous risk of loss of life and limb without beginning to take some decisive action," he told reporters after a White House meeting with Bush's top aides.

In the congressional debate, Republicans so far have shown a willingness to back Bush on the politically unpopular war. But they say they want to see progress by September, when the top U.S. commander, Gen. David Petraeus, delivers his assessment of the war.

Warner's suggestion of initiating troop withdrawals to induce political pressure puts him more in line with Democrats than with Bush, who says conditions on the ground should dictate force levels.

Edwards aims tough talk at Clinton, Obama, focusing on change in new campaign message

HANOVER, N.H. — Presidential hopeful John Edwards said Thursday the Washington establishment is corrupt and suggested _ without mentioning her by name _ that rival Hillary Rodham Clinton has been part of that corroded system.

Edwards' new stump speech, centered on a a need for change and aimed at his top two rivals, comes just before Labor Day, the traditional start of the primary nominating season in this state where he has seen his polling numbers slip in recent months.

"Real change starts with being honest, and I want to say something again: The system in Washington is rigged, and I'll say it again, it's rigged and it's rigged by greedy powers," Edwards said Thursday.

"It's rigged by the system to favor the establishment," he said at Dartmouth College.

What Edwards called "the rhetoric of change" is popular among all the Democratic candidates. Sen. Barack Obama uses the notion throughout his campaign. One of Clinton's slogans is, "Ready for change, ready to lead."

2 injured by falling equipment at troubled WTC building; 2 firefighters died there last week

NEW YORK — Part of the scaffolding surrounding a condemned skyscraper at the World Trade Center site fell Thursday, injuring two firefighters, fire officials said. It was the same building where two other firefighters died in a blaze last week.

The demolition work on the former Deutsche Bank skyscraper had been suspended after Saturday's fire, but workers on Thursday were still busy removing toxic debris from its remaining 26 stories.

Shortly before 2 p.m., the two firefighters were hit by the falling material.

Fire Department spokesman Frank Gribbon said scaffolding fell from the side of the building facing the World Trade Center site, leaving the two firefighters hospitalized in stable condition, one with a head injury. Initial reports that some construction workers also were injured could not immediately be confirmed.

City officials gave a different scenario, saying that a piece of equipment, not collapsing scaffolding, fell from a high floor of the building and through a sidewalk shed, injuring the firefighters who were standing beneath it.

Lindsay Lohan to serve 1 day in jail in plea bargain in DUI cases

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. — Lindsay Lohan reached a plea deal Thursday on misdemeanor drunken driving and cocaine charges that calls for her to spend one day in jail and serve 10 days of community service and complete a drug treatment program.

"She's getting what everyone else would get," Deputy District Attorney Danette Meyers said after an hourlong hearing.

Lohan was charged earlier in the day with seven misdemeanors stemming from two drunken-driving arrests in the last four months. More serious felony drug charges were not filed, prosecutors said, because tests showed there wasn't enough cocaine on her to warrant them.

Wall Street slightly lower as credit worries linger despite Countrywide investment

NEW YORK — Wall Street ended a mildly erratic day slightly lower Thursday after anxiety about widening credit problems offset investor optimism about a $2 billion capital infusion into troubled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp.

The market gave up a moderate early gain, but fluctuations were to be expected given the amount of uncertainty about the credit markets, and the fact that stocks posted big gains Wednesday, pushing the Dow Jones industrials up 145 points.

Bank of America Corp. announced late Wednesday it will invest the money into the nation's largest mortgage lender to help it better weather problems with defaulting subprime loans. The investment was seen as a way to not only prop up Countrywide, but also prevent any further losses at the mortgage lender from hurting the underlying economy. Countrywide's CEO Angelo Mozilo expressed his optimism about the deal in an interview on CNBC on Thursday, but when asked if the housing slump could cause a recession, he agreed.

The market will likely be trading nervously "until we get some clarity from the Fed," said Jim Herrick, manager and director of equity trading at Baird & Co.

The Federal Reserve's moves to ease the market's credit concerns, including cash injections into the banking system and a lower discount lending rate to banks, have had some palliative effect on Wall Street, evidenced by the ebbing of the extreme volatility of recent weeks. But regarding the Fed's moves and Bank of America's investment in Countrywide, "some would argue that this is a Band-Aid approach to a bigger problem ... The big unknown is how widespread this problem is," Herrick said.

Michael Vick's fate in dogfighting plea to be determined by 'tough but fair' judge

RICHMOND, Va. — The judge who will determine how much time Michael Vick spends in prison has shown little mercy over the years for high-profile defendants. Nobody knows this better than defense lawyer Robert H. Smallenberg.

In 2004, he represented a city official who stole more than $1 million from Richmond taxpayers. He was well aware U.S. District Judge Henry E. Hudson had earned a reputation for handing down stiff sentences.

"Tough but fair" is the description most often heard from lawyers who appear before Hudson, who owns a bichon frise dog and declined to be interviewed.

"He's a good trial judge, but on sentencing he tends to be in the middle or upper range of the sentencing guidelines," said attorney Murray Janus. "A lot of judges start at the low end. Not Judge Hudson."