Disney's box-office behemoth "The Lion King" opens Sept. 15 at the Blaisdell Concert Hall — in the middle of the 2007-08 stage season — for an unprecedented 12-week run. How will local theater groups survive?

The Tony Award-winning spectacle — with a cast of 40 singers and dancers — boasts large-as-life puppets of elephants, giraffes and lions parading through the theater to a stage converted into a stylized African landscape — and that's just the opening number.

As the theater season rather unceremoniously gets under way this week with three premieres, "The Lion King" looms as the theatrical event of the year — and there's a stir among some worried camps.

Will the touring production — which has been selling tickets like proverbial hotcakes since January for hotel package sales and since April for the general public — leave empty seats in Island theaters that struggle to survive in the performing arts jungle?

"We're in serious trouble," said Tom Holowach, manager of Paliku Theatre at Windward Community College, which premieres "Pajama Game" tonight at the Kane'ohe performing space. "It's scary, terrible. We moved up our production (from an original October play date) hoping to avoid overlap with 'The Lion King.' In retrospect, it would have made little difference. Folks already spent their $300, $400 for 'The Lion King.' "

The Disney favorite, a Broadway staple for nearly 10 years and winner of six 1998 Tony Awards (including best musical), is the show that locals have been salivating over — to see for the first time, or to see again.

First-day ticket sales — the only time officials released figures — numbered 19,000, for a gross of $1.65 million, a local box-office record. In comparison, "Phantom" grossed $11.3 million in a multi-week run at Blaisdell in 1994 and "Les Miserables" raked in $8 million in 1993.

"I keep hearing 'We bought our "Lion King" tickets and we're broke,' " Holowach said. "We're at 50 percent (below) sales ... the lowest we've ever been. But we're at a disadvantage because we don't have a season (of plays)."

COMPETITION IS GOOD

However, some theater observers see "Lion King" as a disguised blessing that ultimately will foster attendance.

"You prepare yourself for the big wave," said Deena Dray, executive director of Diamond Head Theatre. "But I think competition is always healthy. Maybe later, in years to come, you have people who enjoyed 'Lion King' coming to see what live theater you offer. You have to look at it positively."

Dray said that DHT's season sales are up this fall, with no visible impact by the "Lion King" phenomenon. "We are 2 percent over last year (at the same time)," she said.

At Army Community Theatre, producer-director Vanita Rae Smith said season sales are down. Last year, she had 1,411 season-ticket holders before the launch of the fall season; this year, the count is 1,200.

"We did get our season brochure out late, so that could be a reason," Smith said. "But we've had meetings with other producers at the Hawai'i State Theatre Council. The general feeling is, we've survived 'Phantom,' so we'll survive 'Lion King.' They're 'events' — just as Michael Jackson could hurt us. I know I felt a crunch the year he came."

Scott Rogers, new managing director at Kumu Kahua, said as long as professional national touring companies such as "Lion King" venture here, it's all for the good of the art.

"Everybody goes to 'Lion King,' and it's good when it's the real thing," he said. "If it turns people on to theater, it's a good thing."

Dwight Martin, producing director at Manoa Valley Theatre, agreed that the arrival of "Lion King" will have a positive trickle-down effect.

"It's a different dynamic than one of our local organizations," Martin said. "I'd like to think that anyone going to a big show will get hooked to theater, and come to me later."

MVT, often called the off-Broadway of Honolulu, is modest in size and stages works associated with off-Broadway houses. It has survived the periodic onslaught of out-of-town spectacles.

"It's a double-edged sword," Martin said. "I've been to such an 'event' and the vast majority of customers are probably not the regular patrons of local theaters. So I don't think a 'Lion King' eclipses what we do. Most people who go to local theater are part of a developed audience."

Where it hurts, Martin said, is media focus. "When a big show comes, sometimes we (the little guys) get lost. The excitement of a big Broadway show takes focus for a while and there's a large amount of money spent on advertising."

"Lion King" is second to none, he said, "but there are some things unique that you don't get." At MVT, the black-box performance space can be modified to suit the production. "We reconfigure a show into cabaret seating, with drink service available. We're capable of adding features like this," Martin said. "The Musical of Musicals — the Musical" and the holiday-timed "Plaid Tidings" will welcome a cabaret format, with tables; "The Rocky Horror Picture Show" will embrace a thrust stage. "We're including one standard drink for 'Musical' and 'Plaid Tidings,' " he said, a feature a "Lion King" can't match.

STAGE ECONOMICS

"Lion King" could generate more than $30 million here, said show presenter Jack G. Lucas, of WestCoast Entertainment. "The figure is based on national studies where, typically, every $1 spent on Broadway show tickets yields $3 returned to the community."

"What we see is that little Johnny and little Suzy are dressed up; they've gone to dinner; and they come to the show with their parents," he said. "There's money generated for the community."

The top ticket price of $91 is a bargain, since the show commonly fetches $111.25 in New York, up to $121 or more — through brokers or online services.

"We talked about pricing, and we were sensitive to price to where people could afford to come," said Lucas, who explained that it costs $1.5 million just to bring the show here.

And people are paying.

"We extended the original six weeks, running for 12 weeks, because we knew the community support was there."

The little theaters just hope the support remains once the lion has left the building.

Reach Wayne Harada at wharada@honoluluadvertiser.com.