WASHINGTON — Higher oil prices and credit-market turmoil prompted an international aviation trade group to lower its 2008 profit outlook yesterday, with U.S. carriers expected to be hit the hardest.

The International Air Transport Association estimated a global industry profit of $5 billion in 2008, down from previous guidance of $7.8 billion. The trade group is forecasting a $5.6 billion profit this year, which would be the industry's first since 2000. The IATA said strong traffic and revenue growth are expected to more than offset the negative effect of higher jet fuel prices.

But rising oil prices are expected to add $14 billion to the industry's total fuel bill of $149 billion next year, based on an average price of $78 per barrel. A barrel of light sweet crude jumped $4.37 to $94.39 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Fuel costs, at 25.4 percent, accounted for the largest chunk of U.S. airlines' operating expenses in the second quarter of 2007, and are expected to represent about 28 percent of global expenses in 2007, according to domestic and international trade groups.

Meanwhile, the broadening impact of the credit crunch is expected to slow revenue growth to 4.7 percent and traffic growth to 4 percent, according to IATA.

"The peak of the business cycle is over and we are still $190 billion in debt," IATA Chef Executive Giovanni Bisignani said in a release. "So we could be heading for a downturn with little cash in the bank to cushion the fall."

North American carriers will see the largest fall in profitability to $2 billion in 2008 from $2.7 billion this year, due partly to the impact of the credit crunch and an aging fleet that makes the effect of high fuel prices more acute than in other regions.

European and Asian carriers' profits will drop by $100 million, with strong traffic growth in Asia expected to partially protect carriers from the credit market turmoil.

The profit for Middle East carriers will remain stable and Latin America airlines are the only ones expected to improve slightly in 2008. Africa will be the only region reporting a loss of $100 million in both years, according to IATA.

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