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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, December 15, 2007

Higher gasoline prices spark jump in consumer inflation

By Martin Crutsinger
Associated Press Economics Writer

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Food costs increased 0.3 percent in November, led by big increases in fruit and vegetable prices. Consumer inflation surged by the largest amount in more than two years in November.

AMY SANCETTA | Associated Press

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WASHINGTON — Led by higher gasoline prices, consumer inflation shot up in November by the largest amount in more than two years.

In a troubling juxtaposition, the rise in inflation is coming at a time when economic growth is slowing sharply under the weight of a steep slump in housing and a severe credit crunch.

"We are in store for a period of very weak if not recessionary growth and uncomfortably high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's www.Economy.com. "People are going to get hit with both a weaker job market and having to pay more to fill their gas tanks and buy groceries."

The Labor Department report yesterday showed that its closely watched Consumer Price Index rose by 0.8 percent last month, the biggest increase since September 2005, as energy prices jumped by 5.7 percent, reflecting a huge gain in gasoline. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was also up last month, rising by 0.3 percent as the cost of clothing, airline tickets and prescription drugs all took big jumps.

The bad news on inflation sent stock prices lower. Investors are worried that rising prices will keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates quickly enough to prevent a recession. The Fed uses lower interest rates to stimulate a weak economy and higher rates to slow growth and keep inflation in check.

The Dow Jones industrial average finished the day down 178.11 points at 13,339.85.

With the economy slowing at the same time that inflation is rising, the Fed could face a tough policy dilemma similar to the problems it faced in the 1970s when a series of oil shocks sent inflation soaring while the country struggled with weak economic growth. The combination of stagnant growth and inflation got branded as "stagflation."

The bad report on consumer prices followed a report Thursday showing that inflation at the wholesale level jumped by an even larger 3.2 percent in November, the biggest increase in 34 years.

The Fed cut a key interest rate by a quarter-point on Tuesday but failed to give a strong signal about future rate cuts, which sent the Dow Jones industrial average plunging by 294 points. However, investors were encouraged when the Fed on Wednesday joined with other central banks around the world to unveil new initiatives designed to combat a credit crunch that is weighing on economic activity as banks cut back on their lending.

Despite the higher inflation, many economists said they still believe the Fed will keep cutting interest rates.

With one month to go, inflation in 2007 is rising at an annual rate of 4.2 percent, far above the 2.5 percent increase in 2006. The acceleration has been driven by energy prices, which are rising at an annual rate of 18.1 percent this year, compared to an increase of 2.9 percent in 2006.

The surge in inflation adds another risk to an economy that is already struggling under the weight of a meltdown in housing, a severe credit crunch and faltering consumer confidence. The worry is that the jump in energy costs will leave consumers with less money to spend on other items, worsening the economic slowdown.

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