As 2007 slowly disappears in the rear-view mirror, it's time to take a look ahead at what we can expect on the local business scene in 2008.

The past year was filled with notable events and milestones.

The Superferry's turbulent start. Excise taxes being raised on O'ahu. An increase in the state minimum wage, gasoline prices that edged back up, and Walgreens debuting its first store here. The opening of Waikiki Beach Walk.

You can expect 2008 to be similar with both the expected and unforeseen occurring. It's a leap year and a new president will be elected.

You'll hear more about businesses outsourcing jobs to other countries, while concerns about importing food and toys from foreign nations will be discussed. Wireless technology will continue to creep into our lives. People will worry about oil prices, the subprime mortgage crunch and the economy.

Just what will happen locally?

Here's a small offering of what's on tap.

1. HAWAI'I'S ECONOMY

In what's beginning to sound like a broken record, the outlook goes like this. Hawai'i's economy is growing, but we're still down from 2004 and some of 2005 when the economy chugged along at a fast pace. That's pretty much the forecast that could have been given for 2007, though maybe growth will be a smidgen less in 2008. The state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism is currently projecting Hawai'i's real domestic product will be 2.8 percent versus the 2.9 percent expected in 2007.

What it means: These aren't numbers to cry about.

2. THE HAWAII SUPERFERRY

The Alakai didn't have the start its backers envisioned. After numerous delays and court battles, it's now making O'ahu-Maui runs. Next up: Kaua'i. Odds are that the U.S. Coast Guard and other law enforcement authorities probably aren't going to lose the Battle of Nawiliwili again since they've had months to practice scooping protesting surfers and swimmers from the ocean. But beyond that a question still looms: Will people and companies use the Superferry on a regular basis?

What it means: The Superferry is still on proving runs.

3. TOURIST ARRIVALS

Keep an eye on the U.S. and Japanese economies for a clue on this one. Economic good times prime the tourism pump for Hawai'i. The state's business and economic agency is projecting real growth in both of the economies and for visitor arrivals to increase 1 percent next year. The University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization has forecast unchanged growth in arrivals and a decline in visitor expenditures adjusted for inflation.

What it means: Hope the more optimistic DBEDT forecast is right; the state economists are projecting a 4 percent rise in visitor spending.

4. GO! TO COURT

There probably are two groups of people who love the entry of go! interisland airlines into the Hawai'i marketplace: Consumers who've benefited from the ensuing fare war and lawyers who are litigating issues between the carrier and both Aloha and Hawaiian airlines. Mesa Air Group, parent company of go!, has said it will appeal an $80 million judgment in favor of Hawaiian, which won a court case claiming Mesa misappropriated its confidential information in starting go! Aloha has a separate lawsuit that will be heard this year.

What it means: The outcome of the fare war may be decided in court if Mesa keeps losing court battles.

5. COMPUSA'S GONE; WHO'S NEXT?

Honolulu's CompUSA stores were probably among the best in the chain. Now that the chain's disappearing, what will happen to its two locations here? Will some retailer new to Hawai'i such as Bed Bath & Beyond scoop up the two sites? There are several Mainland big box and large-store chains who haven't graced Hawai'i's shores. Home decor retailer Linens 'n Things, discount department store Kohl's, office supplies chain Staples, and Dick's Sporting Goods to name a few. Or will an existing retailer here pick up the locations in an expansion play?

What it means: CompUSA faltered in competition with Best Buy and Circuit City. Maybe a fresh retail concept takes its place here.

6. UNEMPLOYMENT

We may be at that point where everyone who wants to have a job has one. Hawai'i's joblessness rate has been at or under various definitions of full employment for several years. As such, employers in some corners of the state have difficulty finding workers. This may change slightly in 2008. The UH Economic Research Organization is forecasting the state will reach a four-year unemployment high in 2008 as it averages 2.8 percent for the year.

What it means: 2.8 percent probably will be one of the lowest rates nationally.

7. ALOHA, NORDSTROM

Honolulu will take another step away from the days when Liberty House and Carol & Mary were about as good as it got for fine apparel here. In March, a full-line Nordstrom department store is scheduled to open at Ala Moana Center, bringing with it an enviable reputation for customer service. Expect Honolulu residents to open their pocketbooks as the 200,000 square-foot store siphons business from Macy's and tony retailers.

What it means: A lofty shopping addition, albeit a little pricey, that's been a long time coming.

8. INFLATION

Honolulu's housing prices, medical costs, transportation prices and other expense increases conspired to push up inflation at a nonseasonally adjusted rate of 5 percent during the first half of the year. The good news is that this was down from 2006 and that economists believe it should slow further in 2008. The state is projecting 3.8 percent inflation, down from the estimated 4.5 percent this year.

What it means: Any slowing of inflation is a good thing and helps make paychecks go further.

9. HEALTHCARE

It's an election year and one of the hotter issues will be healthcare. It's difficult to find someone who's happy with the U.S. system. Hawai'i's employersupported healthcare system will be spotlighted and discussed as candidates offer up their plans. We've got low uninsured rates compared with the rest of the country and a relatively healthy population. Lost in some of these discussions will be our doctor shortage and dearth of long-term-care beds.

What it means: Pray someone busts through with a good plan for overhauling healthcare nationally and fixing some of the state's problems.

10. GOING GREEN

Everyone is going green, from Hawaiian Electric urging everyone to switch from incandescent light bulbs to CFLs, to people installing solar and photovoltaic panels on rooftops, to Royal Dutch Shell PLC planning to grow algae in Kona for energy. Renewable and sustainable is in, as people worry about global warming. It's making more economic sense for businesses and residents to seek green solutions.

What it means: This trend looks to have lasting power.

Reach Greg Wiles at gwiles@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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