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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, January 7, 2007

Would-be governors lining up

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Columnist

Now that the new year is upon us it is time to think of — what else? — the next governor's election.

What? Didn't we just have an election for governor? Yes. But in the world of politics, the finish of one election is the beginning of the next.

In Hawai'i, no elected office is as important and as influential as that of governor. National observers have noted that the governor in Hawai'i holds unprecedented power, by tradition, by statute and by constitution. The governor in the Islands is in many ways not only the state chief executive but also the final authority over many county matters.

With a centralized state school system, health and welfare system and more, the governor has more than typical authority over the lives and welfare of Hawai'i's citizens.

Combine that with budget-writing authority and the power to appoint hundreds of officials, from judges to myriad state commissions, and you get a job with considerable political clout.

So it's no wonder that those with political ambitions lust after this office. If you wish to make a difference in Hawai'i, the office of governor is the place to do it.

This past election saw the state's dominant Democrats uncharacteristically passive about the governor's job. After months of fussing, they eventually accepted party stalwart Randy Iwase as their candidate. Iwase did a good job, considering his late start and lack of money. But it was far from the kind of campaign Democrats have mounted in the past.

So what happens now?

If incumbent Lingle Lingle cares about more than her own political career, she must begin building up a Republican power base that offers voters viable choices once she moves on to her next opportunity. It is not enough to assume that Lingle's personal popularity and political clout will transfer automatically to her No. 2, Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona.

The Lingle administration is careful to describe itself in news releases and other materials as the "Lingle-Aiona" administration. And Aiona will have natural claiming rights on succession.

History gives him mixed guidance. Lieutenant governors Ben Cayetano, John Waihee and George Ariyoshi went on to claim the top spot. But other LGs, including Jean King, Nelson Doi and Republican Jimmy Keahola, failed to grab the brass ring. Mazie Hirono, of course, lost her bid for governor, but won a seat in Congress.

Republicans would be well served to develop a deeper bench, by highlighting cabinet and other appointees. As governor, Lingle is in an ideal position to do just that. Expect her to spend more than a little time on this team-building exercise over the next couple of years.

On the Democratic side, there is deep potential if the party and its members choose to make use of it.

The list of contenders is brimming: Ed Case stepped down as congressman with a message to supporters that left him fully in play for a future political run. Case ran a close campaign for governor once before, and while he clearly would prefer to be in the U.S. Senate, his interest in the top state job is undisguised.

Then there is Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who certainly does not lack for political ambition. If he can ride out a first full term as mayor successfully (no small task, that) he would be a natural choice for governor, should he choose that route. As with Case, Hannemann is clearly interested in congressional service. But he wouldn't pass up a shot at governor if the path appears clear.

Another potential player is Congressman Neil Abercrombie. Again, his first preference would be to succeed either Daniel K. Inouye or Dan Akaka in the U.S. Senate. But if fortune dictates otherwise, Abercrombie would be far from reluctant to stand for governor of Hawai'i. It would complete a trifecta of sorts for him, since he has held most other county, state and federal offices the state has to offer.

But the Democrats have a strong "secondary" bench as well. This past election saw nearly a dozen Democrats run for the U.S. House seat vacated by Case. To a man and woman, they mounted credible, quasi-statewide campaigns that clearly qualify them to throw in for the Big One.

It may be that the 2006 election season served as a "breather" period, a relatively quite interlude before the furious competition for governor emerges again.

Reach Jerry Burris at jburris@honoluluadvertiser.com. Read his daily blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com.