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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, January 12, 2007

Isles can't catch a break with storms, drought

By Christie Wilson
Advertiser Neighbor Island Editor

EL NIŅO EFFECTS

El Niņo conditions have developed across the tropical Pacific during the past few months and are predicted to be the dominant factor affecting climate this winter. Water temperatures in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean are more than 1.8 degrees F above normal across this region, and the warmer ocean temperatures are expected to persist or increase during the next few months. El Niņo events influence the position and strength of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean, which affects the winter patterns of rain and temperature across the United States.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

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Year-end rainfall totals released yesterday by the National Weather Service show near- or above-normal precipitation levels for most of the state in 2006.

That would be good news if the rain had been distributed evenly throughout the past 12 months. Instead, it was a year of extremes, said senior hydrologist Kevin Kodama at the weather service's forecasting office in Honolulu.

Rainstorms slammed Hawai'i in the first quarter of 2006, with some sites exceeding their normal annual rainfall amounts in just that three-month period.

March alone saw 22 days of flash-flood warnings and record rainfall. The month was marked by severe thunderstorms, heavy rains that resulted in the deadly Kaloko Dam breach on Kaua'i, a tornado that damaged two small structures on Lana'i, and quarter-sized hail on the Big Island.

The winter maelstrom was followed by an extended period of abnormally dry weather that had the effect of a double whammy on farmers trying to recover from the early drenching that drowned many crops.

"It was pretty horrible. It was either feast or famine," said produce grower Dean Okimoto, president of the Hawai'i Farm Bureau.

"There were three major rainfalls during the year that wiped out farms," he said. With the dry summer came water-use restrictions for some farmers, who were forced to cut back plantings.

Okimoto's Nalo Farms, which grows baby greens, herbs and other produce, lost at least 25 percent of its production due to storms in March, April and early November. "We pretty much lost the Thanksgiving season," he said.

Farmers faced similar weather in 2005, but this year Okimoto and others are hoping for more moderate conditions.

The development of an El Niņo event during the past few months means Hawai'i should experience less rain over the first part of the year, Kodama said.

"The expectation with an El Niņo in place is to have drier-than-normal conditions, although you couldn't tell by this week," he said.

Kodama called the recent rains a "hiccup" in the El Niņo pattern, which is expected to trail off in March, leaving "neutral" conditions for spring.

Despite the unusually warm winter in many parts of the Mainland, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said Hawai'i also can expect below-average temperatures.

NO HURRICANES

Hawai'i was spared from hurricanes during the 2006 tropical cyclone season from June through November, although Kodama said weather trackers were particularly concerned about the July approach of Tropical Storm Daniel, which suddenly dissipated before reaching the Islands, and an October disturbance that was moving in an unusual west-to-east direction, forming near the area where destructive Hurricane Iwa was generated in 1982.

On O'ahu, some of the areas that saw rainfall levels well above normal in 2006 were Kahuku, which recorded 58 inches, 129 percent more than usual; the Wilson Tunnel, with nearly 148 inches (134 percent); Wai'anae, with 25 inches (125 percent); and Honolulu International Airport, almost 30 inches (162 percent). Areas receiving below-normal rainfall include Moanalua, with 51.7 inches (65 percent).

On Maui, Kula in the Upcountry region recorded 30 inches of rain during the year, or 135 percent of its normal annual amount. Rainfall levels were below normal in West and East Maui, and in the normal range in the central part of the island.

Pu'u Kukui above Lahaina was the second-wettest spot in the state, even though it collected only 58 percent of its normal rainfall: 225.5 inches.

Even with data from May missing due to a gauge outage, Kaua'i's Mount Wai'ale'ale led all rainfall totals statewide with 398.74 inches, or 94 percent of normal.

Kona and Kohala were the most notable exceptions to the year of mostly high rainfall totals. Kealakekua had less than half its normal annual rainfall, and Waimea was at 72 percent of normal.

RAINFALL BELOW NORMAL

The drier-than-usual December, thanks to El Niņo, came after expected rains in October and November that kicked off the wet season. Rain gauges on O'ahu recorded below-normal levels last month, with several sites on the western part of the island showing totals at less than 10 percent of usual levels. December produced dry conditions for all locations on the Big Island, according to the National Weather Service, with more than half of the gages measuring totals at less than 50 percent of normal.

All gages on Kaua'i recorded below-normal totals in December, and Hanapepe had only 0.09 inch all month, a paltry 2 percent of normal.

Maui was more of a mixed bag, with near-normal rainfall along the island's north and east-facing slopes, which received heavy rains early in the month. Other areas throughout the county experienced dry conditions, especially on Moloka'i and Lana'i, where all gauges registered at less than 25 percent of normal.

Kodama said the past three years may have seemed relatively rainy, but they were preceded by a five-year drought.

"It would appear that we're getting back to a pattern we've seen before the five-year period, which was an anomaly," he said.

Reach Christie Wilson at cwilson@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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