Posted at 12:57 p.m., Wednesday, July 11, 2007
'Harry Potter' may take in $900 million at box office
By Michael White
Bloomberg News Service
"Order of the Phoenix" opened today in the U.S., less than two weeks before the seventh and final book in the series from author J.K. Rowling arrives in stores.
"Interest is red hot," said Gitesh Pandya, chief executive officer of Box Office Guru LLC in New York. He said worldwide receipts may reach $900 million, including $100 million in the first five days in the U.S. "The convergence of the new film and new book provides a new kind of excitement that we haven't seen yet."
The fifth movie in the series about student wizard Harry Potter and his battles against the evil Lord Voldemort may boost Time Warner's film profit, which tumbled 11 percent last year. The company has slumped to fourth place in U.S. box-office sales from first since the last Potter installment, "Goblet of Fire," took in $892.2 million.
"Order of the Phoenix" will need to approach that total to be considered a success, said Tuna Amobi, an analyst with Standard & Poor's in New York. He said he expects the film to reach that target.
"Anything less than $900 million probably would be considered sub-par," Amobi said in an interview.
Receipts at that level would place the film behind only "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," this year's top- grossing film with $910.6 million to date, according to industry tracker Box Office Mojo LLC in Burbank, California.
"Phoenix" has a chance to be the second-biggest film in the Potter series after the first one, "Sorcerer's Stone," which took in $976.5 million.
Anticipation for the book will boost ticket sales, Diane Nelson, who oversees the Harry Potter brand for Warner Bros., said in an interview.
"We've always believed the books are the foundation of the overall brand," she said. "It means there is more excitement."
Three of the first four Potter installments were released in November to attract holiday-season moviegoers, a strategy that helped those films. The third movie, "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban," was released in June 2004 and had the smallest box-office take at $789.8 million.
Moving "Order of the Phoenix" to July enabled the studio to capitalize on the book and time the home-video release to the Christmas season, said David Joyce, a New York-based analyst for Miller Tabak & Co.
"This is the sweet spot for releasing the film," he said in an interview.
The Potter movies have been New York-based Time Warner's most successful film franchise, taking in $3.54 billion, according to Box Office Mojo. "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy, distributed by Time Warner's New Line Cinema, is second at $2.92 billion.
