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Posted at 2:19 a.m., Friday, June 15, 2007

Latest Harris poll shows Obama gaining on Clinton

News Release

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — While 13 points separated Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama just one month ago in the race for the Democratic nomination for President, the gap between them has narrowed considerably to just four points. Just over one-third (36 percent) of adults who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for Senator Clinton, while 32 percent would vote for Senator Obama. Last month, 40 percent would vote for Senator Clinton and 27 percent said they would vote for Senator Obama.

Of the next closest potential candidates, only one is an actual candidate. However, both are very far behind the two front-runners. Al Gore is next in preference as 14 percent would vote for him, followed by 12 percent who would vote for John Edwards. The other six candidates and potential candidates are all even further behind with only Governor Bill Richardson above one percent - - he is at three percent. The Democratic primary race is clearly a two person race at this point in time.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 3,304 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between June 1 and 12, 2007. This survey included 1,196 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential "horse race," at a very early stage in the race. A previous column(1) reviewed the data on the Republican candidates.

Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections, the adults surveyed were also shown a list of all the main candidates in both parties and some other well-known Republicans and Democrats, and asked which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many people, in both parties, as they wished.

Among Democrats, more people say they would consider voting for Hillary Clinton (70%) than for Barack Obama (57%). However, Obama edges Clinton among Independents (by 38% to 33%). Among the next tier of candidates, half of Democrats (49%) would consider Al Gore, while 43 percent of Democrats would consider John Edwards.

Overall Democratic Leaders Continue to be Preferred over Republicans

When the replies of all adults are taken together, 67 percent would consider voting for one of the Democrats and 59 percent would consider voting for one of the Republican leaders. While almost all Democrats (96%) and Republicans (92%) would consider one of the leaders from their own party, the Independents are pretty equally divided. Two thirds (68%) of Independents would consider one of the Democratic leaders while 60 percent would consider one of the Republican leaders.

TABLE 1

DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ADULTS "WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR" FOR PRESIDENT

"Although the U.S. presidential election is not until November, 2008, there are a number of people who may run for president. If you were to vote and had

to select from the following candidates, for which of the following people

would you consider voting?"

Base: All adults

Feb Mar Apr May June

% % % % %

Hillary Clinton 45 41 37 42 39

Barack Obama 37 41 39 41 37

Al Gore 26 29 29 29 28

John Edwards 28 29 31 31 26

John Kerry 12 14 14 15 13

Joe Lieberman 12 10 9 11 9

Bill Richardson 8 8 9 9 9

Joe Biden 7 7 7 8 7

Howard Dean 8 8 7 9 7

Wesley Clark 8 9 8 7 5

Russ Feingold N/A N/A 5 4 4

Dennis Kucinich 4 5 4 5 4

Christopher Dodd 4 3 3 3 3

Mike Gravel 1 2 1 2 2

Al Sharpton N/A N/A 3 3 2

Base: All adults

Republican Democrat Independent

% % %

Hillary Clinton 8 70 33

Barack Obama 12 57 38

Al Gore 6 49 26

John Edwards 8 43 25

John Kerry 2 25 11

Joe Lieberman 9 10 9

Bill Richardson 3 13 9

Joe Biden 3 11 6

Howard Dean 1 11 7

Wesley Clark 2 8 4

Russ Feingold 1 6 4

Dennis Kucinich * 5 5

Christopher Dodd 1 5 3

Mike Gravel 1 3 1

Al Sharpton * 4 2

Note: Multiple-response question

*Less than 0.5% "-" No response

N/A — Not applicable

TABLE 2

DEMOCRATIC VOTERS FIRST CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for

president in the Democratic primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which

one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Democratic primary or caucus

April May June

% % %

Hillary Clinton 37 40 36

Barack Obama 32 27 32

Al Gore 13 13 14

John Edwards 14 12 12

Bill Richardson 3 3 3

Joe Biden 1 2 1

Dennis Kucinich 1 1 1

Wesley Clark * 1 1

Christopher Dodd * * *

Mike Gravel - * *

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

*Less than 0.5% "-" No response

TABLE 3

SUMMARY: THOSE WHO WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR ANY OF THE LISTED LEADERS

AND CANDIDATES

Base: All adults

Feb Mar Apr May June

% % % % %

Would consider one of

the listed Democratic leaders 71 69 68 71 67

Would consider one of

the Republican leaders 58 59 59 58 59

Base: All adults

Republican Democrat Independent

% % %

Would consider one of

the listed Democratic leaders 32 96 68

Would consider one of

the Republican leaders 92 33 60

Methodology

This Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between June 1 and 12, 2007 among 3,304 adults, 1,196 of whom said they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J 30279A (June)

Q492, 2036

(1) The Harris Poll(R) #55, Fred Thompson Solidly in Second Place in

Republican Preference For President, June 14, 2007

The Harris Poll(R) #56, June 15, 2007

By Regina Corso, Director, The Harris Poll(R), Harris Interactive.

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. The company provides innovative research, insights and strategic advice to help its clients make more confident decisions which lead to measurable and enduring improvements in performance. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. The company has built what it believes to be the world's largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and MediaTransfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms. More information about Harris Interactive may be obtained at www.harrisinteractive.com. To become a member of the Harris Poll Online and be invited to participate in online surveys, register at www.harrispollonline.com.