In his June 15 column, "City transit will need persuading," Advertiser Public Affairs Editor Jerry Burris questions whether the ridership numbers for the planned fixed-rail transit system will justify the project, raising this issue in the context of the recent report by the U.S. Census Bureau, which found more people than ever commuting alone.

From the June 14 Advertiser story on the Census Bureau report: "From 2000 to 2005, the share of people driving alone to work increased slightly to 77 percent, according to a Census Bureau report yesterday. Carpooling dropped and the share of commuters using public transportation stayed the same." That doesn't sound like riders are abandoning mass transit.

More to the point, The Advertiser's June 15 Page One headline, "TheBus ridership is back," runs counter to the premise that transit ridership is declining. Once again, we see the danger of using national trends to project the behavior of Hawai'i residents. Clearly, the trend locally appears to be more, not less, transit ridership.

In considering what's needed to generate transit ridership, Burris fails to mention the possible impetus generated by a change in current conditions. Instead, he places the onus of achieving ridership goals on transit advocates, specifically tasking them with creating the necessary political tools or social climate (or both) to yield a combination of persuasive and coercive approaches to fill seats on the fixed-rail system.

It's true that ongoing public information and education will be needed to help commuters understand their choices and help them make wise transportation decisions sooner rather than later — decisions that are in their best interests, as well as those of the larger community.

But more than any action by transit advocates, roadway congestion and market forces will generate the demand for the fixed-rail transit system. Anyone who has driven on O'ahu for the past five years can clearly see the trend of increasing congestion and wasted time sitting in traffic.

Likewise, the trend in gas prices will ultimately force commuters to reconsider their transportation options. If $3 gas hasn't brought about a substantial change, we can be sure that $4 or $4.50 will. At some point, too many people will have to give up too much to bear the cost of driving to work and back.

While most concerns with fossil fuels have focused on climate change, another phenomenon with equally dire consequences looms. If some of the best petroleum analysts are correct, the inability of world oil production to keep up with demand will grow more apparent in the next few years, and the first sign will be an increasing upward trend in the cost of oil products, of which gasoline prices will be the most conspicuous.

This concept of peak oil dates back to the 1950s when Shell Oil geophysicist Marion King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak around 1970 and the nation would become a net importer of oil. Although ridiculed at the time, his prediction came to pass.

Simply stated, Hubbert predicted that the production of every oil field roughly follows a bell curve. The first half of the curve represents the easy-to-extract, cheapest and highest quality oil. After the peak of the curve, it becomes increasingly expensive to produce oil from a field, requiring more pricey technology to bring up the oil, which is also of poorer quality, making it more costly to refine.

A nation's entire oil production follows the same curve and by extension, so does the world's. Many petroleum analysts have concluded that we have reached the tipping point at which demand will begin outstripping supply. Others believe we are rapidly approaching that point. At the same time, discoveries of new fields are declining, creating a perfect storm of rising demand and less supply.

This scenario of declining oil production holds many implications for agriculture, urban planning and healthcare. But transportation impacts will be the first and most obvious, if these experts are correct.

By 2012, the earliest date projected for the first leg of the planned fixed-rail line to begin operations, gas prices may be well north of $5 a gallon. With gasoline at this price, a monthly rail pass will look a lot more attractive than it does from today's vantage point, even if auto manufacturers produce vehicles that deliver better mileage.

And if sustainability and climate change are considerations, a fixed-rail system that runs on electricity provided in whole or in part by renewable fuel sources looks much more attractive than automobiles, the majority of which will continue to run on carbon-based fuels.

It will take a major cooperative effort to meet the challenges we will face in a world where our primary energy source is disappearing. Those who believe they can avoid changing their commuting choices and other behaviors that depend on unrestrained consumption of gasoline are in for a rude awakening.

John Williamson has worked on transportation projects in Hawai'i and Washington state since 1989 and is a senior vice president of public affairs at McNeil Wilson Communications. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.