Kevin Durant is fun, interesting, hypnotizing and has a game framed in neon.

But you have to think bigger.

Greg Oden has to be the first pick in the NBA Draft on Thursday because the only teams to have done real winning recently do so with a presence in the middle of the floor. Oh, Durant might grow into Kobe Bryant or Tracy McGrady or Kevin Garnett, but his potential still isn't as large as Oden's.

Why?

Because McGrady has never been out of the first round in his fluorescent career.

And Bryant, who overestimated his own value three years ago and underestimated Shaquille O'Neal's, has suddenly figured out that the only way to get out of the first round is to whine and whimper and get traded.

And Garnett, one of the best players ever at his position, has been out of the first round all of once in more than a decade and can't even reach the playoffs anymore.

To win big in today's NBA, you need to think big and be big.

Whether it is Hakeem Olajuwon or O'Neal or Tim Duncan, big men have hogged basketball's championships for more than a decade. That isn't a coincidence. Perimeter players, even ones as good as Bryant, need the game made easier for them the way O'Neal clears the path for Dwyane Wade and Duncan opens up the jungle for Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

JORDAN EXCEPTION

But there is that one pesky and historic exception, right? And his name happens to be Michael Jordan. He didn't need any help in the middle. His centers were Bill Wennington, Luc Longley and The Names Get Funnier From There. And Jordan kept beating Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, O'Neal and all the best giants of his era. The only way you pick Durant over Oden is if you believe Durant is Jordan. And what are the chances of that?

This same Portland franchise now choosing between Oden and Durant decided to pass on Jordan while assuming that bigger was better. So poor Sam Bowie, like Bill Buckner and Scott Norwood and John Rocker and a host of other infamous names, is only associated with one awful thing for his entire career. He is viewed as one of the biggest mistakes in the history of sports.

But Portland has to risk the same mistake with Oden. Because Durant can be great and still not good enough. But if Oden is great, you increase your chances of winning big. The reward is bigger than the risk.

Oden, although immensely athletic, is limited offensively. He looks like the oldest freshman in the history of education. If Oden and Caldwell Jones were in a room together, you would have a hard time telling who was younger. But he's still growing, played last season with the wrong hand (he injured his right) and is able, unlike Durant, to bench-press 185 pounds more than once.

BIG OR BUST

Of course, everyone fears going large and picking one of the historic busts. The landscape is littered with failed ideas named Michael Olowokandi and Pervis Ellison and Shawn Bradley and Jon Koncak and Kwame Brown — all of whom set their franchises back years. And, as Yao Ming has proved recently and Ewing showed before him, you can have a great center and still fail.

But every sports draft is throw-darts-at-a-board guesswork, especially when choosing between two kids who have just completed one year of college, so the safer pick is the smarter one.

Durant is the beauty with the curves and the cleavage and the short skirt that everyone covets from a faraway glance.