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Posted at 1:53 a.m., Tuesday, June 26, 2007

NBA: Analyzing shooting guards for draft

By David Aldridge
The Philadelphia Inquirer

If they fill it up in college, they tend to fill it up in the pros. And Thursday's NBA draft, like most, is filled to bursting with shooting guards. But the way the pro game is evolving, many two guards are now asked to do more than just shoot. They have to bring the ball up against pressure, initiate offense, and guard the opposition's point guard, if need be. When you think of NBA guards, think Gilbert Arenas, think Dwyane Wade, think Joe Johnson.

Just don't think you can stop them.

Here is a look at shooting guards available in the draft. Rankings are based on conversations with pro and college coaches, NBA general managers, scouts and player personnel directors. Players are included at the position they are expected to play most — at least initially — in the NBA, not the position they played in college or abroad:

1. Nick Young

6-foot-6, junior

Southern Cal

He is rapidly rising up draft boards because of his good workouts and projected ability to contribute immediately. "He can help you now," a Southeast Division executive said. Jones is able to make tough shots, a valuable NBA skill. "He's not the kind of kid that's put hours upon hours in the gym to get to where he is," a Central Division scout said. "Tim Floyd (USC's coach) said his concern for the kid was his body. ... Tim was trying to get him in the weight room, but the kid kept shooting 50 percent from the field." It wouldn't surprise if a certain local team also did due diligence on Young while it was in Los Angeles scouting big man Yi Jianlian. Projected pick: 12th through 18th.

2. Rodney Stuckey

6-4, sophomore

Eastern Washington

He is a classic combo guard who will be taken ahead of other more pure point guards. "If you put him at the point, I might take him ahead of (USC point guard Gabe) Pruitt," a Midwest personnel executive said. Stuckey is compared to Detroit's Chauncey Billups, which is why most mock drafts have the Pistons taking him at 15. He creates separation when he goes one-on-one and can finish in traffic. But Stuckey may be at a disadvantage because his team played in a remote area and did not compete in the postseason, including its conference tournament. Projected pick: 13th through 16th.

3. Morris Almond

6-6, senior

Rice

One of the best shooters in the draft, Almond also impresses in the classroom, graduating on time with a sports management degree. "He's a great kid," a Midwest scout said. "He shoots the NBA three so easily. He doesn't even step in it. He just catches it flat-footed and shoots it." He also has a good midrange game but needs to work on his ballhandling and defense. Projected pick: 18th through 24th.

4. Rudi Fernandez

6-6

DVK Joventut

The 22-year-old Spaniard is one of the best athletes in the draft — "a Rex Chapman type," an Atlantic Division personnel man said — who could play some small forward. But there are concerns about his frail body. Fernandez is an outstanding slasher who could fit right into a team's rotation next season. Teams with multiple first-round picks may well take a flier on Fernandez, whose high buyout (more than $2 million) might keep him from going to the NBA next season. Projected pick: 21st through 29th.

5. Marco Belinelli

6-5

Fortitudo Bologna

The 21-year-old is a better shooter than Fernandez and has a better in-between game. But he isn't as good an athlete. Nonetheless, he's got a lot of supporters, including one personnel type who likened him to Paul Westphal. (Most others disagreed with this comparison.) But Belinelli, who played great at the Eurocamp for two days earlier this month, will not get out of the 20s, and it wouldn't surprise if Toronto, with no first-round pick, managed to trade its way into the round with one name in mind: his. Projected pick: 22d through 30th.

Best of the rest

Daequan Cook (Ohio State), Arron Afflalo (UCLA), Reynaldas Seibutis (Maroussi, Greece), Trey Johnson (Jackson State), Lee Humphrey (Florida), JamesOn Curry (Oklahoma State).

The wild card

Marcus Williams, Arizona. A huge talent, the 6-7 sophomore nonetheless fell out of favor with Lute Olson and no one in Tucson was especially sad to see him declare for the draft. "I don't know about him as a teammate necessarily," a Central Division exec said. "I think he's kind of into Marcus Williams." Others wonder about his mechanics. "Something's happened to his game, particularly his shot," a Pacific Division scout said.

Quotable

"As long as you get your rest, eat right, stay in shape, it's not as bad as a lot of people make it out to be. As long as you make it through the plane ride, get an exit row, you'll be OK." — Rice guard Morris Almond on the effect the arduous predraft workout schedule has on a shooter's legs.

Tomorrow: Power forwards