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Posted at 2:23 a.m., Wednesday, June 27, 2007

NBA: Analyzing the small forwards for the draft

By David Aldridge
The Philadelphia Inquirer

When you dream of yourself on the court, you're probably dreaming you're a small forward.

You're long and athletic like Tayshaun Prince, have a good handle like Caron Butler, and can score like Carmelo Anthony, rebound like Rashard Lewis, and leap out of the building like Andre Iguodala — yet you're tough enough to defend like Bruce Bowen.

Maybe, like LeBron James, you can do just about all of the above.

That's what a big-time small forward gives a team. And this year's draft is loaded with small forwards with big-time potential — including the player who will likely be the second overall pick in Thursday's draft. But there are many other small forwards who will have an immediate impact.

The rankings are based on conversations with pro and college coaches, and NBA general managers, scouts, and player personnel directors.

1. Kevin Durant

6-foot-10 freshman

Texas

Durant is a scoring machine, a reincarnation of George Gervin — except he's three inches taller than Ice and probably has more range. Pencil this guy in for 27 points a night for the next decade. In just about any other year, Durant would be the consensus No. 1. "As much as you'd love to pick (Greg) Oden, and Oden should be the guy who goes No. 1, your consolation is Durant," says an executive of a team picking in the top five. "That's not a consolation." Yes, Durant is rail-thin and will have trouble guarding small forwards. But Durant's offensive arsenal is complete.

Projected pick: first or second.

2. Corey Brewer

6-6 junior

Florida

Many think Brewer may be the best of the superb Gators class in the pros, pointing to his superlative perimeter defense and attitude. "He didn't shoot the ball well," says a Northwest Division personnel man whose team worked Brewer out. "But as soon as it went live (against competition), everything changed." Brewer's body is similar to Rip Hamilton's, but he wishes he had Hamilton's shot. "His handle was solid," says a Pacific Division scout, "but I'm not sure he'd be able to bring the ball up" against pressure.

Projected pick: fifth through 12th.

3. Jeff Green

6-9 junior

Georgetown

Teams love his production and dispel criticism that he was a product of the Hoyas' Princeton offense. "When he got 30, how much Princeton offense did they run?" a lottery-team executive asks. "He played in a slow-type system," says the head coach of a team picking in the top five, "but they were still effective. He does a little bit of everything." Says an assistant of a team drafting in the top 10: "Jeff Green is the ultimate team player."

Projected pick: fifth through 10th.

4. Julian Wright

6-8 sophomore

Kansas

The good news: Wright is a terrific open-floor player, with the speed and ballhandling to be a natural small forward. And he's a solid defender. The bad news? "He can't shoot at all," a Central Division personnel man says. "But he's a hell of a person."

Projected pick: eighth through 14th.

5. Al Thornton

6-7 senior

Florida State

Most everyone says the same thing: He's already a man. "He's going to be a monster," says an assistant coach in the Atlantic Coast Conference whose team played against Thornton last season. "If he falls below 15, somebody's stupid. That's how good he is." Thornton can handle it and shoot it, and comes to play. But Thornton will be undersized at power forward in the NBA and will have to play a lot of small forward. Medical alert: Thornton may need wrist surgery.

Projected pick: 10th through 18th.

Best of the rest

Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt; Jared Dudley, Boston College; Demetris Nichols, Syracuse; Reyshawn Terry, North Carolina; Alando Tucker, Wisconsin; Wilson Chandler, DePaul; Dominic McGuire, Fresno State.

The wild card

Thaddeus Young, 6-8 freshman, Georgia Tech: Scouts are of two minds about the just-turned-19-year-old. "He needs to take his butt back to school," says a Southeast Division scout. Many of Young's supporters acknowledge he's a down-the-road project, but his skills will make him a first-round selection.

Quotable

"I'm a nice person, not a bad guy. I have never been in any trouble, never beaten up anybody. I am just a nice guy who works hard and is willing to do anything to win."

— Kevin Durant