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Posted at 2:26 a.m., Wednesday, June 27, 2007

NBA: Analyzing power forwards in the draft

By David Aldridge
The Philadelphia Inquirer

At the deepest position in this year's draft, power forwards of all shapes and sizes abound. When NBA teams salivated at the big men in this draft, this is what they were talking about. You have bangers and shooters, length and toughness, intrigue and uncertainty. And you may have as many as four of these players taken in the top 10.

Here is a look at power forwards available in the draft. Rankings are based on conversations with pro and college coaches, and NBA general managers, scouts and player personnel directors.

1. Al Horford

6-foot-10 junior

Florida

He is a safe pick, a prototypical power forward who will play hard from minute one. "He has an NBA body," says a Pacific Division scout. "You know what you're getting." But Horford may be as good as he can get right now. And he couldn't stop Greg Oden in April's NCAA title game. Still, Horford won't be waiting in the green room for long Thursday. Projected pick: third to fifth.

2. Joakim Noah

6-11 junior

Florida

Noah's production is off the charts, and it shows in just about every category — including, surprisingly, assists (90 last season, second-highest among college big men). "He is 6-11 and he can run and there's never been any question that he can compete," says a Pacific Division personnel man. Noah's shot, currently nonexistent outside of eight feet, has to improve. Noah feels that "everybody should have the same enthusiasm and passion for the game that I have," says Virginia Commonwealth Coach Anthony Grant, who recruited Noah to Florida. "And when they don't, it hurts his feelings."

Projected pick: third to seventh.

3. Brandan Wright

6-9 freshman

North Carolina

With more finished products available early, Wright might slip a little. As one assistant coach of a lottery team put it, "he's going to be a real good player in three years. I want to win right now." But Wright's upside make this 19-year-old unlikely to last long. "He's not a big-time shot maker and he doesn't have great range or anything," says a Central Division's personnel director. "He's never going to be a big physical body. But he is so long and so athletic. He'll be tough to pass up" early.

Projected pick: sixth to 12th.

4. Yi Jianlian

7-0

Guangdong Tigers, China

The scariest prospect in the draft. No one wants to miss out on the next Dirk Nowitzki, which Yi might well become. But who'll have the guts to take a kid whose age is uncertain (anywhere between 19 and 22) and who hasn't played top-shelf competition? "There's a lot of questions about him," says the general manager of a top-five team. "But the thing about it is, his skill set is off the charts for a guy his age." Says a Pacific scout who watched Yi extensively in China: "This Army team, they don't use American players. It was local kids guarding Yi. He was better than all of them, but he could have done better."

Projected pick: third to 10th.

5. Jason Smith

7-0 junior

Colorado State

He played center in college but is projected as an NBA power forward who can run and shoot past 20 feet. "I'm not saying he has a great vertical (leap), but he does it quickly, which is just as important," says a Southeast Division GM. Not everyone's a fan. "His team never won," says a college coach whose team played against Smith. " ... If you can't help your team win in the Mountain West and you're a 7-footer, something doesn't jibe well." He might have done better had he stayed for his senior season.

Projected pick: 16th to 24th.

Best of the rest

Tiago Splitter, Brazil; Josh McRoberts, Duke; Nick Fazekas, Nevada; Glen Davis, Louisiana State; Carl Landry, Purdue; Jermareo Davidson, Alabama; Ali Traore, France; Avis Wyatt, Virginia State.

The wild card

Sean Williams, 6-10, junior, Boston College. Williams was kicked off BC's team in January for reported marijuana and liquor violations, and has tried to rehab his image and game while working out in Houston with John Lucas. "He's one of those guys that can be an impact player. Now you have to figure out: Does the risk outweigh the reward?" asks a Northwest Division personnel man. He can have an impact immediately at the defensive end; his offensive game and overall strength need work.

Quotable

"To me, the most important thing was to come back and win another championship, and we accomplished that. I am very happy about that and feel I made the right decision. I have no regrets."