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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted at 2:45 a.m., Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Golfer's eighth ace defies logic, odds

By Larry Bohannon
The Palm Springs Desert Sun

PALM SPRINGS, Calif. — Even for a mathematician, the numbers Jacqueline Gagne has produced cause a momentary expression of awe.

"I don't think I have a name for this number," said Professor Michael McJilton of the College of the Desert Math and Science Department when he calculated the odds of a golfer making seven holes in one in just 13 weeks. Since McJilton's calculations, Gagne has made an eighth.

The odds that McJilton finally came up with were 113,527,276,681,000,000 to 1 against the event happening. Rounded up, that's 114 million billion (114 quadrillion) to 1.

Usually, a golfer can expect to make one hole in one if he or she plays 5,000 rounds.

Gagne played at least five rounds of golf each week for the 13-week stretch in which the holes in one were made. That's 65 rounds of golf.

McJilton said determining the numbers requires taking the 65 rounds as a grouping of rounds within the 5,000 required to make a hole in one. So the 114 million billion to one includes determining the odds of making seven holes in one, and making them in a grouping of 65 rounds.

"It's what we call a probably distribution," McJilton said. "It takes a sequence of identical events, in this case a round of golf, for this grouping, the number of times you look at a group of 65 rounds. What's the probability that in any grouping of 65 rounds, you make seven holes in one?"

For comparison, McJilton said the odds of making three holes in one in the same 65 rounds is about 2.9 million to 1.

Making a hole in one in one round doesn't change the odds of 5,000 to 1 for making a hole in one in the next round, McJilton said. Each individual round has the same statistical chance of making an ace, no matter what happened in the previous round or what could happen in the next round.

Instead of once every 5,000 rounds, Gagne is getting an ace once every 9.2 rounds.

Based on once ever every 5,000 rounds, eight aces should take 40,000 rounds. Based on five rounds a week, 40,000 rounds would take a player 153.8 years to play.

How unlikely is Gagne's streak? Check these odds:

— Rolling snake eyes, or double ones, with a standard pair of dice: 1 in 36

—Being dealt a royal flush on the opening deal of a poker hand: 1 in 649,739

—Being struck by lightning: 1 in 700,000

—Hitting all five numbers and the bonus number of the California SuperLotto Plus: 1 in 41,416,353

—Hitting all five numbers and the bonus number of the Mega Millions lottery: 1 in 175,711,536

—Gagne's hole-in-one streak: 1 in 113,527,276,681,000,000