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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Thursday, May 10, 2007

Despite some worrisome signs, economy's not all bad

By Elliot Spagat
Associated Press

A car salesman in Carlsbad, Calif., appears to have plenty of time on his hands. And it's no wonder: All major automakers reported sales declines for April.

LENNY IGNELZI | Associated Press

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SAN DIEGO — Craig Gardner is eating at home more to save a few bucks. He cringes at paying $100 to fill his truck with gasoline, so he no longer drives with a full tank.

Gardner, a 30-year-old National Guardsman from Fayetteville, Ark., and others just like him are showing flashes of frugality as high gasoline prices and shrinking home equity make shoppers count every penny.

Among the worrisome signs:

Last week the Commerce Department reported that inflation-adjusted consumer spending was its weakest since September 2005, after two massive hurricanes slammed into the Gulf Coast, disrupting oil supplies and sending gas prices skyrocketing.

Also last week, all the major automakers reported sales declines for April, with U.S. light vehicle sales falling 7.6 percent compared with April 2006. Even Japanese carmakers, which have steadily been grabbing market share from U.S. auto companies, were hurt by the sales drop that many blamed on rising gas prices and the slump in housing.

Last month, the New York-based Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 104.0 in April, down from a revised 108.2 in March. The April reading was the lowest since August, when the index was at 100.2.

The Labor Department said growth in worker productivity and wages slowed in the first three months of this year.

And Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the nation's largest retailer, said that April's selling environment will be tough. Rival Target Corp. also said its April sales were coming in "much weaker" than expected.

It's hardly all gloom and doom for consumers, though, and some analysts say the wariness has yet to trigger alarms about a broader economic downturn.

Personal income rose a healthy 0.7 percent in March. And while the Labor Department reported Friday that the unemployment rate rose to 4.5 percent in April on sluggish jobs growth, it was a small uptick from March's 4.4 percent rate, which matched a five-year low.

"We expect some deceleration in consumer spending but the consumer will continue to be the mainstay of the U.S. economy," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at consulting firm Global Insight. He predicts consumer spending will grow about 2 percent in the second quarter.

The weakness may be limited to certain industries, including autos and construction, and to specific companies, some analysts argue

Circuit City Stores Inc. blamed poor television sales for an anticipated first-quarter loss, and Tweeter Home Entertainment Group Inc. recently said it was closing 49 of its 153 stores. But both electronics retailers have struggled against larger rivals Best Buy Co. and Wal-Mart.

Auto sales plunged because manufacturers aren't making the right cars, not because home prices are slumping, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal, a research firm.

Consumers are no longer tapping home equity like an ATM, said University of San Diego economist Alan Gin, who used the increased value of his home to get a loan for a new minivan in 2004.

Gin compiles an index of local economic indicators that he said fell to its lowest level in January since February 2004, led by a decline in building permits.

Gas prices hovering around $3 a gallon nationwide for regular are causing some consumers to change their habits.

Jeff Simon, a 43-year-old San Diego investor, started bicycling to the gym to save money on gas.

"I used to just drive anywhere," he said. "But now I stop and think about it first."