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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, November 5, 2007

Down, but hardly out for Hawaii

By Ferd Lewis
Advertiser Columnist

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The University of Hawai'i football team dropped two places in the Bowl Championship Series rankings to 16th yesterday but — brace yourself — this was actually something of a good omen.

It means that, as long as the Warriors continue to win, it should be as far as they fall in the all-important BCS rankings.

That's crucial because with four strength-of-schedule boosting games from here on out, it leaves UH well within striking distance of the magic top 12 position in the Dec. 2 final poll for a guaranteed BCS appearance. Boise State was 14th at the same point last year and finished eighth.

"All things being equal and they don't lose again, (the Warriors) should go up from now on," said Jerry Palm, whose Web site, College BCS.com, tracks the BCS.

If there was a week UH was vulnerable to get passed by a herd of BCS heavies and could do little about it, this was it. With UH (8-0) having an open date, dead in the water with its sagging strength of schedule numbers, the fear was that a handful of marquee schools might leap-frog the Warriors.

Six of the nine teams immediately behind UH won, but just two, Texas (8-2) and Florida (6-3), hopped over them. Significantly, Southern California (7-2) and Auburn (7-3) remained behind, the Tigers getting leapfrogged by three teams for the schedule hit they took for playing I-AA homecoming patsy Tennessee Tech. Had Auburn slipped past UH on that note, the Warriors' prospects would have seriously dimmed.

Instead, the Warriors can thank the human component in the BCS process. UH stayed 10th in the Harris Interactive poll and dropped but one place in the USA Today Coaches poll, riding out the struggles with the computers which have been unforgiving of the weak schedule.

In 10 years of the BCS, "There has never been a team (ranked) so disparately between what the voters think of them and what the computers think of them," Palm said.

Only one of the six computer providers (Peter Wolfe) even has UH in the top 25 underlining how much more forgiving the voters are than computers. UH's schedule is ranked worst among the 119 I-A teams and 160th overall. To date the highest-ranked UH foe in the Sagarin ratings, one of the BCS computer providers, is No. 106 Louisiana Tech. Now comes the "meat" of the schedule, Fresno State (73), Nevada (105), Boise State (28) and Washington (53), who all rank better.

Having stayed in the top 16 at this juncture was huge for UH. Now comes the "easy" part. All it has to do is win out.

Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8044.

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