The number of pothole complaints received by the state has plummeted from as many as 50 a day in 2004 to just a handful today, suggesting that O'ahu's main roads are in better condition heading into the rainy season.

Forecasters predict more rain than usual this winter, but an ambitious program launched three years ago has repaved state highways across O'ahu and left them better able to withstand the ravages of winter.

"The number of potholes has gone down the more we have repaved," said Scott Ishikawa, state Department of Transportation spokesman. "We've spent over $100 million on repaving jobs over the past three years. And we've still got a number of projects to go."

Soon, for instance, Ishikawa said, the repaving should be finished on one of Honolulu's perennial pothole nightmares — a stretch of Ala Moana near the Gold Bond building. The 'ewa-bound lanes from Downtown to Ward Avenue are done, he said. Those in the other lanes should be done by early next week.

"The more roads we can repave, the less problems we're going to have with potholes," he said. "Basically, it's as simple as that. Patching is a quick fix."

But when a pothole becomes an ugly reality, patching is often the only option available.

92,500 PATCHED

In the past 15 months, city crews have patched more than 92,500 potholes that have appeared in the 1,100-plus miles of the mostly residential roads that the county owns.

"The mayor's 'war on potholes' is not over," said city spokesman Bill Brennan, adding that motorists on the front lines are essential for victory. He asks that when they spot a chuckhole or pavement rut to call the pothole hot line.

"We need the public to be our eyes and ears," he said. "We don't have the staff to drive all over the island looking for them. So it's better if they are called to our attention and we respond."

Potholes usually occur when a lot of rainwater collects on the road and seeps through cracks in the pavement, said Larry Leopardi, chief of the city's Division of Road Maintenance.

When those sections become saturated with water, the underlying layers can break down under the stress of moving vehicles, leading to potholes.

More rain generally equals more potholes, making the winter forecast important from a driver's point of view.

And the National Weather Service expects a wetter-than-normal winter.

"That's what the Climate Prediction Center thinks — especially from December through April," said Kevin Kodama, a National Weather Service hydrologist. "And that's partially due to La Niña, which is in place right now. That's cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures near the equator. The expectation is you have a tilt in favor of wetter-than-normal weather."

Kodama said the wetter winter would probably not compare to the spring of 2006, when record rainfall led to a flood on Kaua'i and sewage spill at the Ala Wai Canal. From a pothole standpoint, though, this winter could be significant.

One piece of good news is that the asphalt shortage of a year ago has passed, Leopardi said. There's plenty of asphalt to patch the pukas, he said.

The bad news: It doesn't do much good to patch potholes when it's raining. If the rains are sustained, such as in 2006, potholes only multiply.

"The problem with potholes is not the patching," Leopardi said. "You do patch them to get some temporary relief. But you have to excavate and rebuild that failure to really make it work. From my perspective, a lot more resurfacing and reconstruction is required."

RESURFACING HELPS

Leopardi and Ishikawa say the way to beat the pothole problem is through periodic pavement resurfacing or planned roadway reconstruction. Repaved roads resist potholes.

"Potholes are symptomatic of a deteriorated roadway," Leopardi said. "The best way to eliminate potholes is to have an ongoing program with consistent funding to reconstruct the failed roadways and to perform full-depth resurfacing on a programmed basis."

Any way you look at it, potholes distress the average motorist.

"Potholes are bad," said Clint Chikamori of Kapahulu, who operates Chik's Auto Air & Alignment at 753 Queen St. Chikamori, whose family has been in the front-end wheel alignment business for three decades, sees the results of pothole axle-benders all year long.

However, it's around this time of year that more ravaged vehicles rattle into his repair shop. He said there's no way to calculate how many are out of whack due to potholes, but he suspects potholes are a leading cause.

And while he dislikes potholes, he also knows they can be good for business.

"When it rains, it always creates more potholes," Chikamori said. "And the ones that are already there only get bigger."

Reach Will Hoover at whoover@honoluluadvertiser.com.