Hawai'i's economy will experience moderate growth next year, according to the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism's quarterly forecast.

The forecast echoes sentiments expressed by private-sector economists, who predict slow growth but no recession for Hawai'i's $50 billion economy.

The cooling comes as both the construction and tourism sectors plateau after an exceptional run-up during the past several years.

"Strong employment growth in professional and business services, construction and health services is countering slower visitor activity so far in 2007," said DBEDT Director Ted Liu. "Right now our analysis is that this should help maintain economic growth into 2008," he said.

After remaining virtually unchanged in 2006, visitor arrivals are expected to decline 0.8 percent this year because of fewer international arrivals in the first half and a recent decline in domestic arrivals. That's up from a 0.3 percent decline in the previous DBEDT forecast. Visitor arrival growth is now expected to be 1.0 percent next year, which is down 0.5 of a percentage point from the prior forecast.

Personal income, total wages and salary jobs are all forecast to increase. The estimate for real (inflation-adjusted) personal income growth remained unchanged from the August forecast at 1.8 percent. In 2008, real personal income is projected to grow 1.8 percent, which was down 0.1 of a percentage point from the previous forecast.

The forecast for Honolulu's Consumer Price Index is also unchanged at 4.5 percent for 2007 and 3.8 percent for 2008. That's down from a 5.9 percent increase for all of 2006.

The forecast for wage and salary job growth was revised down slightly to 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent in the previous forecast. The job growth forecast for 2008 remained unchanged at 1.5 percent.

DBEDT's forecast for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product growth is unchanged at 2.9 percent in 2007.

The projection for 2008 was revised downward by 0.1 percentage point and now stands at 2.8 percent.