The University of Hawai'i football team is 90- to 95-percent assured of a Bowl Championship Series berth if it beats Washington in Saturday's regular season finale, even the most serious of its previous doubters concede.

The 11-0 Warriors moved into the magic No. 12 position in the BCS standings yesterday and will be guaranteed a berth in one of the lucrative January bowls if they maintain or better the ranking when the final standings are released Sunday.

The Warriors' 39-27 victory over Boise State for the Western Athletic Conference championship left them the only unbeaten team in major college football and was good for a jump of three places in the BCS standings. Although UH improved three spots in both human polls — the USA Today coaches poll and Harris Interactive poll — the most significant leap took place in the six computer rankings where UH's average went from 22nd place to 14th.

"If Hawai'i beats Washington that should be enough," said Sam Chi, of www.BCSguru.com. "I'd put it at about 95 percent. It should be a near slam-dunk now." Last week, Chi had posted on his Web site: "The Warriors, at No. 15, may have already climbed to the top of Mauna Kea and can't go any higher."

Jerry Palm, whose www.CollegeBCS.com tracks the BCS standings, estimated at "90" percent the Warriors' chances of earning the prized BCS berth if they prevail over Washington. Last month, Palm had warned, "Hawai'i's schedule is so bad that they might not crack the top 15 in the computers, even at 12-0."

The only potential hangup could come if UH gets leapfrogged next week by teams playing in conference championship games. "If either Boston College (over Virginia Tech in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship) or Tennessee (over LSU in the Southeastern Conference championship) wins, but Virginia Tech or LSU stays above (UH) anyway," the Warriors could get passed, Palm cautioned. "I'm not saying Virginia Tech or LSU would definitely not fall below them, just that they might not."

Chi said there is "less than (a) 5 percent" chance of UH being leapfrogged if it beats Washington.

"The only scenario I can see for the Warriors not to get into the BCS is this: LSU beats Tennessee, Oklahoma beats Missouri and Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Hawai'i wins a sloppy game against Washington, or at least the final score is very close," Chi said.

WAC commissioner Karl Benson, who has maintained since the preseason that an unbeaten team from the conference would receive a BCS berth, said he still doesn't see any roadblocks if the Warriors finish 12-0. "They need to finish the way they have started," Benson said.

Benson added, "having back-to-back BCS (entrants) would validate the fact the WAC has established itself as a major player in college football."

Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@honoluluadvertiser.com.