Posted at 3:19 p.m., Tuesday, November 27, 2007
CFB: LSU could have a shot at title game
By Glenn Guilbeau
Gannett News Service
BATON ROUGE, La. "It could happen," J.P. says over and over to his friend Roger in the "Angels in the Outfield" movie.
And it does. The last place California Angels somehow win the pennant and both foster children J.P. and Roger get adopted.
ESPN's Bowl Championship Series expert Brad Edwards is the LSU football team's angel in the polls. Edwards, an Alabama graduate, thinks it could happen. Edwards thinks LSU will reach the BCS national championship game on Jan. 7 in New Orleans if the following "miracles" occur:
BCS No. 9 Oklahoma (10-2) beats BCS No. 1 Missouri (11-1) on Saturday in the Big 12 championship game.
Unranked Pittsburgh (4-7) beats BCS No. 2 West Virginia (10-1) on Saturday in the Backyard Brawl.
BCS No. 7 LSU (10-2) beats BCS No. 14 Tennessee (9-3) on Saturday in the Southeastern Conference championship game.
In the poll voting on Sunday, LSU leapfrogs BCS No. 6 Virginia Tech (10-2), No. 5 Kansas (11-1) and No. 4 Georgia (10-2) to No. 2, thus setting up the BCS title game between LSU and Ohio State (11-1), which would subsequently move from No. 3 in the BCS to No. 1.
The most unlikely "miracle" is Pitt winning at West Virginia. Pitt is a 27-point underdog. Oklahoma has already defeated Missouri 41-31 in the regular season and is a three-point favorite to do it again. LSU is a seven-point favorite to beat Tennessee. Virginia Tech could help LSU before the voting on Sunday by losing to Boston College (10-2) Saturday in the Atlantic Coast championship game, but the Hokies are a five-point favorite.
"I don't think Pitt can beat West Virginia," Edwards said Tuesday. "But it would not be the biggest upset of the year by any means. There have already been three teams lose at home this season as bigger favorites than West Virginia."
Those were USC to Stanford, Louisville to Syracuse and Michigan to Appalachian State. Six teams ranked No. 2 in the Associated Press poll this season, by the way, have all lost as the No. 2 team California, USC, South Florida, Oregon, Boston College and Kansas. "So, it could happen," Edwards said.
There, he said it. Now, it gets interesting.
Edwards believes LSU would jump over Georgia and Kansas into the No. 2 spot in the BCS because LSU will be the SEC champion, while neither Georgia or Kansas won its division.
"It's been my experience with watching how voters vote over the years and talking to a lot of voters that they will not vote a team that didn't win a division or a conference over a conference champion," Edwards said. "That's what happened to Michigan last year."
Florida moved past Michigan last season and replaced USC in the No. 2 position in the BCS a day after Florida won the SEC championship and UCLA upset No. 2 USC. No. 2 Florida then beat No. 1 Ohio State for the national championship.
So why are Georgia and Kansas ahead of SEC West champion and SEC championship game favorite LSU now?
"Because in voters' minds it doesn't matter right now who is behind Missouri and West Virginia," Edwards said. "It didn't matter who was behind Ohio State and USC last season until USC lost to UCLA. Then the voters decided to push Florida ahead of Michigan because I believe they didn't want to reward Michigan because it didn't win its conference and because Michigan had had its shot at Ohio State. That could happen again. When the voters know that vote really means something, they'll vote LSU over Georgia and Kansas. Plus LSU will be coming off a win over Tennessee. Voters tend to overreact after a highly ranked team loses and feel they have to drop them. That's what happened to LSU after it lost to Arkansas.
"I just don't think voters would keep Georgia at 10-2 over an 11-2 LSU team that just won the conference Georgia is in. Kansas would be 11-1 but did not win its division and has no quality victories this season."
This has happened, though. BCS No. 1 Oklahoma lost the Big 12 championship game in 2003 and still had enough votes and computer scores to reach the BCS title game, where it lost to LSU. In 2001, Nebraska did not win its Big 12 division, yet made the national championship game.
"But the BCS changed after that and gave voters more power," Edwards said.
Voters in the USA TODAY coaches poll and in the Harris poll now account for two-thirds of the BCS equation, whereas the computers account for one third.
Georgia coach Mark Richt sees his non-league champion team as having a shot.
"It's just the way it is," he said. "I've seen that type of thing happen before. We saw Oklahoma lose its championship game and then played for the national championship, didn't they? So just about anything I guess could happen."
LSU coach Les Miles naturally has a problem with that.
"I think the conference champion should carry a lot of weight with a lot of people," he said. "The champion should be allowed every opportunity to play in the most prestigious bowl. Certainly Georgia is a talented team, but when it comes to arguing the pros and cons of who should have that opportunity, I can certainly make a strong case that we might be more deserving."
This brings us to Virginia Tech, which next Sunday could be 11-2 and fresh off an Atlantic Coast Conference championship game victory over BCS No. 11 Boston College. Virginia Tech has also defeated Georgia Tech (7-4), Florida State (7-4) and No. 16 Virginia (9-2) in recent weeks, whereas LSU lost to an unranked 7-4 Arkansas team.
"But LSU has a 48-7 win over Virginia Tech," Edwards said. "Even though that was way back on Sept. 8 and both teams are different, that lopsided score is impossible to ignore. When it means who plays in the BCS title game, voters are not going to put Virginia Tech over LSU after LSU beat them that badly."
There you have it. Should Oklahoma, Pittsburgh and LSU win this Saturday, it could happen.
"I will assure you if those things happen, LSU will get into the BCS championship game," Edwards said. "Oh yes. I'm not lobbying for LSU. I'm just saying that's how the voters will see it."
Miles has hope.
"I'm a pretty optimistic guy," he said. "I don't do too much figuring out, but yeah I hold out that opportunity. But it might not be the kind of odds that I want to bet my house on."