honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, October 14, 2007

COMMENTARY
Taiwan leader making some noise

By Richard Halloran

President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan, backed by the first public display of a made-in-Taiwan missile, renewed his defiance of the U.S. and China last week, undoubtedly setting off alarm bells in Washington and fresh anger in Beijing.

In a national day speech in Taipei on Double Ten, Oct. 10, Chen said: "The international community should not, in fear of China's military might, demand that Taiwan keep quiet. Nor should it, out of concern for commercial interests, turn a blind eye to China's military intimidation and diplomatic suppression of Taiwan, or to its 'united front' economic warfare against Taiwan."

Those remarks seemed directed at President Bush because in the next breath Chen reminded listeners that Bush had said: "Free nations are peaceful nations, free nations do not threaten their neighbors, and free nations offer their citizens a hopeful vision for the future."

Turning his attention to China, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan, Chen demanded that Beijing "immediately withdraw missiles deployed along its southeastern coast and targeted at Taiwan; stop military exercises simulating attacks on Taiwan; abolish its so-called anti-secession law; and accelerate political and democratic reforms."

To underscore his point, Chen had Taiwan's armed forces parade on National Day for the first time in 16 years and included trucks hauling missiles called Hsiung Feng III or Brave Wind III. Those new missiles are capable of hitting Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait, ports on the mainland, or some of the 1,000 Chinese missiles deployed across the strait and aimed at Taiwan.

The National Day celebration marks the overthrow of China's last imperial dynasty, in 1911. The parade was traditional until 1991, when it was called off in an effort to ease tensions with China.

Officials of the Bush administration recently have publicly urged and privately demanded that Chen tone down the rhetoric and actions that Washington considers provocative. Washington repeatedly has asserted that it wants the "status quo" maintained between Taiwan and China, with neither side ratcheting up threats against the other.

Until this week, the Chen government had indicated that it would heed Washington's admonitions. Officials in Taipei had indicated they understood that, ultimately, Taiwan's continued existence separate from mainland China depended on the U.S. being willing to use its military power to defend Taiwan.

Chen, however, has made clear he will have none of it. "Taiwan and the People's Republic of China are two sovereign, independent nations, and neither exercises jurisdiction over the other. This is a historical fact. This is the status quo across the Taiwan Strait."

The Bush administration particularly deplored President Chen's recent request that his nation be admitted to the United Nations as Taiwan since that would aggravate Beijing. The application was denied, but Chen said: "Our quest to gain entry into the U.N. will not be abandoned simply because of momentary setbacks. The government of Taiwan will continue to pursue that goal with unwavering determination."

The State Department, perhaps taken aback by Chen's bold remarks, had no immediate comment. A Chinese spokesman said Thursday that Chen's scheme of Taiwan independence "is doomed to fail." In Tokyo, the chief cabinet secretary and spokesman for the government, Nobutaka Machimura, cautioned: "It will not help to take actions that would strengthen military tensions."

Behind Chen's strong words, said longtime Asia hands, was a desire to help the nominee of his Democratic Progressive Party, Frank Chang-ting Hsieh, get elected. Taiwan's presidential election is scheduled for next March, with the new president inaugurated in May. By law, Chen cannot succeed himself.

Chen, however, has no intention of leaving the political scene, and on Thursday announced he would become chairman of the country's ruling party, which will give him a platform for extending his political influence, no matter who is elected president. Former Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou is the candidate for the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang.

Meantime, Taiwan-U.S. relations most likely will continue to be rocky so long as Chen is in office, according to a study by the Congressional Research Service, which prides itself on its nonpartisan and apolitical assessments.

The CRS pointed to "mistrust between the Bush and Chen administrations, mixed bilateral messages, (and) a decline in the extent to which Taiwan is willing to fulfill U.S. expectations about its own self-defense." The analysis also noted "the fragmentation of the once powerful 'Taiwan lobby' in the United States, a perceived declining role for Congress, and the sheer volatility" of Taiwan's domestic politics.

Richard Halloran is a Honolulu-based journalist and former New York Times correspondent in Asia. His column appears weekly in Sunday's Focus section.