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Posted at 1:00 a.m., Friday, October 19, 2007

NFL: Patriots beating up opponents, oddsmakers

By Erik Matuszewski
Bloomberg News Service

Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the New England Patriots are punishing oddsmakers and sports books as they pile up points and win games at a historic pace.

The Patriots are averaging a National Football League- leading 38.3 points a game in their 6-0 start and have covered the point spread in every game, including two wins in which they were favored by more than two touchdowns.

The team may become the NFL's first undefeated club since the 1972 Miami Dolphins and break the record for points in a season. New England's start has bettors cashing their winnings, and Las Vegas and Internet sports books cutting their losses.

"It's really shaken up the world of online sports betting when you get a team like this," BetUS.com spokesman Reed Richards said in a telephone interview. "It's so difficult to anticipate. You know they're going to win, the question becomes how big are they going to win? It's a weekly effort to try to figure this thing out."

Richards said some clients of Costa Rica-based BetUS.com have won "tens of thousands of dollars" on the Patriots and that the site's oddsmakers spend far more time researching statistics and news to determine betting lines for New England than any of the league's other 31 teams.

While the spread for an NFL game is usually between three and seven points, the Patriots this week are favored by 16 1/2 points, on the road, against the winless Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins shut out the Patriots 21-0 in Miami last season.

"We couldn't remember a more than 14- or 15-point favorite on the road in years," said Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which advises Nevada sports books on their betting lines. "It's definitely uncharted territory. As oddsmakers, it is tough to keep up with the level at which they're playing."

A bettor picking a Patriots' victory collects on the wager only if they win by the point spread or more.

The Patriots are coming off a 48-27 win over the previously unbeaten Dallas Cowboys, the highest point total in 23 years for a New England franchise that's won three of the last six Super Bowls. With 230 points, New England is on pace to top the NFL season record of 556 points by the 1998 Minnesota Vikings.

Brady threw a career-high five touchdowns last week against Dallas and is the first quarterback in league history with three or more scoring passes in each of his team's first six games. The 30-year-old quarterback has 21 touchdown passes, including eight to wide receiver Moss, and might break Peyton Manning's record of 49 in 2004.

Popular Patriots

"They've been popular over the past few years, so to add the points they're putting up to the mix, they've been tough for us," Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Las Vegas Hilton Race & Sports Book, said in a telephone interview. "The public always likes to bet on a team that scores a lot of points."

The Hilton, which says it is the world's largest sports book, has lost "quite a bit" on the Patriots this year, Sherman said. He refused to give specific figures.

Sports books try to set the point spread at a number where they will get an even share of bets on each team, with all bettors paying a small fee for each bet. Generally, the sports books' profit comes from keeping that fee from the losing bettors.

"Regardless of what that number is this year, the public is backing the Patriots," said Chuck Esposito, assistant vice president at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. "This is kind of unprecedented for us to see a team that's this dominant against the rest of the NFL because in the NFL there's so much parity."

The Patriots already have a 4 1/2-game lead in their division, and are the only NFL team favored to win by more than 10 points this weekend.

The New York Giants are listed as a 9 1/2-point favorite over the San Francisco 49ers, according to Las Vegas Sports Consultants, while the Cowboys are favored by the same margin over the Minnesota Vikings. New York and Dallas are playing at home.

Even with other games around the league, Richards of BetUS.com said his oddsmakers "live and breathe" the Patriots.

"The Pats are really coming through for people," he said. "They may be the spurn of sports books, but they're making a lot of players really excited, and I think they're good for football in that capacity. It's certainly been a lot of fun for us in trying to figure it out."