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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted at 1:22 a.m., Sunday, October 21, 2007

NFL: Bay Area has become a Quarterback Wasteland

By Tim Kawakami
San Jose Mercury News

OK, let's all settle in for a super Sunday six-and-a-half hours of Trent Dilfer for the 49ers, Daunte Culpepper for the Raiders, and Hardly Any Offense for either team!

Hey, if we're lucky, we could get a little dose of Shaun Hill and Andrew Walter, too, conjuring clumsy images of...of...probably Dilfer and Culpepper, actually.

Oh yes, don't forget hurt Alex Smith and young JaMarcus Russell, a combined guaranteed $56 million of hope-we-don't-have-to-play-them No. 3 QBs today during the 49ers road game against the New York Giants in the morning and the Raiders hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in the afternoon.

Wait. You say this isn't right. You say you can't stand another weekend of cover-your-eyes Bay Area NFL quarterbacking.

You ask: When did the Bay Area of Montana, Stabler, Young and Gannon turn into a QB Wasteland?

I can't fix the problems, but I can diagnose them all, with a single answer:

Through various coaches, coordinators and headstrong receivers, the 49ers and Raiders have been dramatically outplayed at the QB position since the beginning of the 2004 season, and most especially in the exact situations the two teams find themselves in today.

Need I remind you, the Raiders have lost their past 16 games against division opponents; and the 49ers have lost their past 14 when playing East of the Mississippi against non-division foes.

If you want to sum up why the 49ers and Raiders have been so bad since the start of 2004 (Raiders 13-40, 49ers 15-38), you couldn't find two better indicators: the 49ers are horrendous playing in the East, the Raiders are stunningly bad playing in the division.

And in those two cross-sections, both the Raiders and 49ers' QBs have been miserable, which explains a lot.

It's almost impossible to win big games when you have the lesser QB, and the Raiders and 49ers have been in that situation almost every week for years now.

That doesn't mean it'll always be this way, of course. Smith and Russell, looming on the sidelines, are the best two reasons for both teams to think optimistically.

But the horror QB action has happened, and until the 49ers and Raiders stop getting outplayed at QB, nothing much will change in the standings.

I dove into the media guides. I went game by game through the weekly web stats. Trust me on this, or curse my bad math. Here are the lowlights:

—In the Raiders' 16-game division losing streak, which began after their Nov. 28, 2004, victory at Denver, the Raiders have been clearly outplayed by the opponent QB 13 times.

I give Raiders QBs only one outright victory — Kerry Collins over Jake Plummer during the 2005 season when Plummer threw three interceptions and somehow Denver still won — and I give the Raiders two ties with Trent Green.

A note: To rate individual performances, I came up with an Efficient Game marker; for a QB to rate an EG, he must have passed for 220 or more yards, with a 55 percent or better accuracy rate, with one or more touchdowns and one or fewer interceptions. Pretty basic.

In the 16-game division losing streak, the Raiders have had no efficient QB games.

—In the 49ers' 14-game non-division East of the Mississippi losing streak, which started after a victory with Jeff Garcia in Philadelphia at the end of 2003, the 49ers have been outplayed at QB 13 times.

The only 49ers QB victory during the streak was Tim Rattay over Chad Pennington in the middle of 2004, and that wasn't exactly Hall of Fame material.

In the 14-game losing streak, the 49ers have had no efficient QB games.

—Overall, since the start of 2004, Raiders QBs have been outplayed 71 percent of the time (38 times in 53 games).

They've been outplayed by Charlie Frye twice, by Gus Frerotte, by Seneca Wallace, by whomever the Chargers put out there, and yes, by Alex Smith on Oct. 8, 2006 (vs. Walter).

—Overall, since the start of 2004, 49ers QBs have been outplayed 76.7 percent of the time (43 out of 53 games).

They've been outplayed by Aaron Brooks, Josh McCown, Jamie Martin, Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman.

—The 49ers have an average 63.9 QB rating since the start of 2004; opponents have an average 91.7. (I just added up each year's rating and divided them — you're not supposed to do that, but I did.)

The Raiders have an average 71.5 QB rating since the start of 2004; opponents have an average 84.5.

—Neither the Raiders nor 49ers have had an efficient QB game, as I've marked it, this season.

Recently, Smith had four in 2006, Ken Dorsey had one in 2005, and Tim Rattay had four in 2004.

Meanwhile, the Raiders had none in 2006, Collins had seven in 2005, and Collins had five in 2004.

—For comparison's sake, Garcia had nine efficient QB games in 2003, his last year with the 49ers.

And Rich Gannon had eight efficient QB games for the Raiders in his MVP season of 2002.

Obviously, there are no answers here, only results.

As you prepare to enter a trance state of Daunte/Dilfer zen QB activity, I can only say: Yes, Bay Area offense used to be better than this.