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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, October 22, 2007

COMMENTARY
Mortgage crisis may end up affecting all of us

By Tom Zimmerman

Now that panic over the sub-prime mortgage meltdown has subsided a bit, and the financial markets have absorbed the initial hysteria regarding the "credit crunch" caused by the mortgage mess, it's time for all of us to take a look at how this "crisis" affected our lives in the short-term and how it may affect our futures.

To be quite honest with you, the mortgage meltdown of 2007 has had very little impact on Hawai'i's real estate market and even less effect on local homeowners and homebuyers.

Hawai'i's typical family can still easily obtain a mortgage to buy a new home. In fact, interest rates have decreased slightly since the beginning of the mortgage mess, so they may even be able to pay less for a mortgage today than before the "crisis."

Working folks who are prudent with regard to managing their finances (prime borrowers) have not seen any change to their criteria to qualify for a home purchase. And one must remember that most of our residents are considered "prime borrowers."

The vast majority of folks who are purchasing homes in our state are quite conservative financially. They have excellent credit histories and they are responsible with their money. So although there is a perception that it's difficult to obtain a loan, the truth is that it is not more difficult for those who have demonstrated fiscal responsibility to borrow money.

Hawai'i's real estate markets have demonstrated this fact by displaying strength in the face of the bursting of the national real estate bubble. Our median prices in most areas remain relatively stable and we also continue to see median price increases in several local real estate markets.

So, if Hawai'i's real estate market, its homeowners and most homebuyers have not been affected by this "crisis," who has? Well, clearly those who have failed to display responsibility in handling their finances will have a more difficult time obtaining a mortgage today.

They will have to do more to repair their credit histories and this will mean that they may have to wait to acquire a home rather than getting one instantly.

Another group that will surely be affected by the mortgage mess will be the real estate speculators. These are "flippers" who overextended themselves in the pursuit of profits. These folks, who purchased real estate purely to sell it for more, may end up taking losses when they can't flip their properties as quickly and they are forced to pay for the mortgages that they obtained in their investment efforts.

Hedge fund investors may also be negatively impacted by the crisis. When highly experienced investors participate in hedge fund investment, they provide their millions to managers who attempt to obtain high rates of return. Some of these managers invested amazing sums in highly risky sub-prime mortgage derivatives called collateralized debt obligations. Many of these groups have lost millions.

The final group that is affected by the mortgage mess are homeowners that have overextended themselves by speculating that their home's value would continue to increase at a record pace. These folks who used their homes as an ATM machine to pay for other consumer debt will now have to pay the piper for their financial indiscretions. Many chose to obtain "toxic" mortgages that adjust upward quite quickly, increasing their payment while others borrowed all of the equity out of their homes to finance their lifestyles. These folks may not be able to refinance these debts as readily as they could have before the mortgage mess.

Since the vast majority of us are not real estate flippers or millionaire hedge fund investors, and since most of us manage our finances responsibly, we should not be negatively affected by this mortgage mess, right?

Well, yes — we should not be affected, but the fact is that we may be affected even though we have handled our finances appropriately. That's because the mortgage crises and real estate mess on the Mainland may mean that all taxpayers (regardless of their status) will have to pay for the losses incurred by those who are in trouble.

A number of members of Congress and many of the presidential candidates are calling for a bailout of those who are having difficulties with paying their mortgages. So, the national government may be forcing consumers who have been completely responsible with their finances to pay for property flippers who made a poor investment decision and homeowners who made poor financial decisions.

In other words, many believe the responsible should pay for the losses incurred by the irresponsible. This may end up as the lasting legacy of the entire mortgage meltdown of 2007.

Tom Zimmerman is president of Central Pacific Homeloans. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.