It's always a feel-good story for someone, right? Last year, Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith proved that nice guys don't always finish last, while Peyton Manning earned the championship ring that had eluded him for so long at Tennessee and with the Colts.

This year's story? Actually, we already know how it ends — the ultimate feel-good story, actually — but first let's deal with the 30 teams that won't be feeling good on Super Bowl Sunday.

You don't go from being one of the worst three defenses in the NFL to Super Bowl champions. Say goodbye to Cincinnati, Washington and Tennessee.

The `99 Rams won it all coming off a 4-12 season. No one has won fewer than four games one year and been fitted for rings the next. Wave to Oakland and Detroit.

If you're starting a Manning at quarterback but his first name isn't Peyton, you're not playing in February. Sorry, Giants.

If you think 37-year-old Trent Green, coming off a season in which he was badly outplayed by Damon Huard, is the answer, you've lost sight of the question. Exit Miami.

If you traded your backup quarterback to Houston, only to see your starter heading for prison . . ., well, no one thought Atlanta was Super even with Michael Vick.

Everyone talks defense, but you still have to put points on the board. If you were one of the three lowest scoring teams in 2006, you're not partying in Scottsdale in February. So long to Cleveland, Tampa Bay and (strangely) we get to eliminate Al Davis' Raiders a second time. Kinda fun.

I'm sorry, if your run defense was so porous that you gave up more than 140 yards on the ground per game last year, you didn't have enough time to fix it this off-season. That wipes out Buffalo and St. Louis.

Super Bowl hangovers can be rough and not just for the media. The team that loses the Super Bowl hasn't made it back to the next Super Bowl since the `93 Buffalo Bills (and they lost again, too). Tough luck, Chicago.

There were seven Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in the league last year and none had a lifetime win percentage below .530. That seems like a fair cutoff point, so we get to drop five more losers — teams captained by Alex Smith (San Francisco), Matt Leinart (Arizona), Matt Schaub (Houston), Jay Cutler (Denver) and Tarvaris Jackson (Minnesota) can go home now.

On the other hand, throwing the ball is nice, but throwing it way too much isn't. The team that threw the most passes in 2006 and isn't sure it has solved its running back problem with a rookie is out. See ya, Brett Favre, but thanks for coming back, anyway.

Great teams repeat as Super Bowl champions. Really good teams that get ravaged on defense don't. Toss out the Colts.

Takeaways can be a sign of great defense. Also, to some degree, a sign of luck. The team that has the best plus-minus and thrives off it one season usually doesn't get quite so fortunate the next. There goes Baltimore.

There are a lot of things I like about the Jets. Playing in New England's division isn't one of them. I will say the same for the Chiefs playing in San Diego's division, Carolina playing in New Orleans' division and, yes, Seattle playing in the Rams' division. Those four are out.

Jacksonville is a fun team to watch, especially when Maurice Jones-Drew has the ball, or the opponents have it. The rest of the time — not so much. Just not enough balance for the Jaguars.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Even healthy, Donovan McNabb is not going to play at the level Jeff Garcia reached (over 61 percent, two interceptions in 188 attempts) a year ago. Laugh now, call me in December.

That brings us to our conference championships — Dallas at New Orleans and New England at San Diego.

The Chargers won't forget what happened to them in the playoffs last year. And Randy Moss will help the Patriots a lot less than you think. San Diego gets to its second Super Bowl.

There's a lot to like about Tony Romo and the two-headed running potential of Julius Jones and Marion Barber. It's just that there's a little more to like about Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, and the Saints' defense has improved enough to take that one extra step.

Sean Payton and Norv Turner have been to Super Bowls as coordinators. In February, they make their first trip as head coaches. It's a great game, but eventually the new America's Team makes New Orleans a city of joy once more, however briefly.