Picking who will win an Emmy is not unlike throwing a handful of coins in the air and guessing which will hit the ground first. You can take into consideration the weight of the program, how much hot air resistance it has gotten from critics and even the pull of the mass audiences.

In the end, it is all an educated guess.

Take for example the nominees in the outstanding drama series category for the 59th Primetime Emmy Awards to be handed out tonight on Fox.

The heavyweight is "The Sopranos." HBO's family/crime drama has been nominated for the honor seven times. It's won only once, in 2004. Now that the series has ended, it should be a lock. But, "Heroes" is the biggest thing to hit television since the remote control. The NBC drama has become a global phenomenon in its first season. That would suggest the NBC drama should take the top honor.

And then there's the fact that top dramas like Showtime's "Dexter" and the Fox series "24" are not even in the running.

In the end, look for "The Sopranos" to have given voters a drama they could not refuse.

The pick for outstanding lead actor in a drama series is no easier. Three-time Emmy winner James Gandolfini is the acting force that powered "The Sopranos." But, Hugh Laurie's work on "House" has redefined good acting. Of course, "24" works because of Keifer Sutherland.

Since Michael C. Hall, whose work on "Dexter" was by far the best television work of the year, did not even get nominated, the winner will always be second best. In this case, that would have to be Laurie. That character has to walk a fine line between the guy you love to hate and the guy you hate to love. Laurie does it with surgical precision.

Over on the women's side, look for Kyra Sedgwick to pick up the award as outstanding lead actress in a drama series. Voters love quirky detective characters. Just ask Tony Shalhoub, who is a repeat Emmy winner for "Monk."

It is a shame that none of the "Grey's Anatomy" actresses got nominated in this category.

And now for the serious business of comedy. The fact that "30 Rock" is even nominated for outstanding comedy series is proof that last year was a bad year for television comedies. "My Name Is Earl" and "Scrubs" both deserved to be nominated instead of the dull-as-a-stone "30 Rock."

While "Ugly Betty" deserves the Emmy, it will be a repeat win for "The Office."

The same holds for outstanding lead actress in a comedy series category. America Ferrera deserves the statue for her splendid work on "Ugly Betty." But Julia Louis-Dreyfus will win because some voters still think she is on "Seinfeld."

Shalhoub's work on "Monk" and Ricky Gervais on "Extras" both were good enough to win the outstanding lead actor in a comedy series Emmy. But it will be Alec Baldwin who takes home the gold. Makes sense. He's the only reason to watch "30 Rock."

A few other predictions: