DETROIT — Consumers are expected to curtail their spending for the holidays this year as the U.S. housing slump, mounting debts and tightened credit restrict household budgets, according to two new surveys and a poll.

The National Retail Federation predicts in its holiday forecast released yesterday that holiday sales will rise by 4 percent this year, their slowest pace in five years.

TNS Retail Forward, a Columbus, Ohio, retail consulting firm, yesterday predicted a 3.3 percent to 4.6 percent rise in holiday retail sales.

While home improvement stores have felt the pinch more than others this summer, lower consumer spending will be felt in other types of stores as well.

"The credit crunch will lead to a consumer crunch by the holidays," said Frank Badillo, senior economist for TNS Retail Forward.

As a result of housing industry problems, stricter credit standards and falling home prices, more consumers feel overwhelmed by debt and are unable to refinance their homes, according to a new study by America's Research Group.

In the past year, twice as many consumers surveyed said they felt pressure from debts, the report found. The survey of 1,000 consumers found that 71.7 percent said they felt pressure from debts, compared with 48.9 percent a year ago.

"Consumers will be more bargain-driven than ever this year because that's the only way that they can afford to buy things," said C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group based in Charleston, S.C.

One bright spot in the retail federation report comes from the luxury retail category. Consumers who shop at these stores are able to maintain high levels of spending.

For example, luxury retailer Saks Inc. reported an 18.2 percent rise in sales at stores open at least a year in August.